He Maolang, Gu Ruru, Huang Xin, Zhao Aifang, Liu Fang, Zheng Yong
Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shihezi University, No.107 North Second Road, Hongshan Street, Shihezi, 832008, China.
School of Medicine, Shihezi University, No.107 North Second Road, Hongshan Street, Shihezi, 832000, China.
BMC Gastroenterol. 2025 Jan 8;25(1):7. doi: 10.1186/s12876-025-03592-w.
Gallbladder and biliary diseases (GABD) represent prevalent disorders of the digestive system.
Data on age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was utilized to quantify temporal trends in GABD. Age-period-cohort analysis was conducted to determine the effects attributable to age, period, and birth cohort. Additionally, we projected global trends to 2035.
Globally, GABD incident cases, mortality cases, and DALYs increased by 60.11%, 71.71%, and 56.90%, respectively. However, all corresponding age-standardized rates (ASRs) demonstrated overall downward trends with estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) of -0.32 (-0.38 to -0.26), -0.95 (-1.08 to -0.83), and - 0.69 (-0.74 to -0.65), respectively. The number of incident cases was higher in females than in males across all age groups. The age effect indicated that older individuals had higher age-specific incidence and death rates. Both period and cohort effects showed declining risk across incidence and mortality. The ASIR and ASMR of GABD are projected to continue decreasing over the next 15 years.
GABD continue to pose a significant global public health challenge, particularly affecting women and the elderly population. Consequently, the implementation of effective interventions to mitigate the GABD burden is of paramount importance.
胆囊和胆道疾病（GABD）是消化系统的常见疾病。
从《2021年全球疾病负担（GBD）研究》中提取年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）、年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）和年龄标准化伤残调整生命年（DALYs）率（ASDR）的数据。利用估计年变化百分比（EAPC）来量化GABD的时间趋势。进行年龄-时期-队列分析以确定年龄、时期和出生队列的影响。此外，我们预测了到2035年的全球趋势。
在全球范围内，GABD的发病病例、死亡病例和DALYs分别增加了60.11%、71.71%和56.90%。然而，所有相应的年龄标准化率（ASRs）总体呈下降趋势，估计年变化百分比（EAPC）分别为-0.32（-0.38至-0.26）、-0.95（-1.08至-0.83）和-0.69（-0.74至-0.65）。在所有年龄组中，女性的发病病例数均高于男性。年龄效应表明，年龄较大的个体具有较高的年龄别发病率和死亡率。时期和队列效应均显示发病率和死亡率的风险在下降。预计未来15年GABD的ASIR和ASMR将继续下降。
GABD继续对全球公共卫生构成重大挑战，尤其影响妇女和老年人群体。因此，实施有效的干预措施以减轻GABD负担至关重要。
