Kuluwan Yimuran, Rusuli Yusufujiang, Ainiwaer Mireguli, Haizhi Wu, Maolan Kadierye
College of Geographic Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi, 830017, China.
J Environ Manage. 2025 Feb;374:123880. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123880. Epub 2025 Jan 9.
The changes in lake ice phenology (LIP) can intuitively reflect the climate evolution in the regions where lakes are located, serving as an important indicator of climate change. The Tianshan Mountains, situated at the southern edge of freezing lakes in the Northern Hemisphere, are a crucial water resource base in Xinjiang and support significant ecosystems closely related to human activities. In the context of intensified climate change, this study focuses on the geographical location, altitude, and water quality differences among large lake groups in the mid-latitude region of Xinjiang, aiming to explore the characteristics of LIP changes in these lakes and their responses to driving factors, thereby providing a basis for effective environmental management and protection. This research conducts a comparative analysis of the LIP changes and driving factors of three large lakes-Sayram Lake (SL), Bosten Lake (BL), and Ebnur Lake (EL)-using multi-source remote sensing data to reveal the response and adaptation mechanisms of lakes under global warming. It effectively captures the time series variations of ice formation and melting, as well as the common responses to environmental and climatic factors. The results indicate that SL has experienced significant climate change effects, with earlier freezing times and accelerated melting speeds; In contrast, EL and BL have shown relatively minor changes, suggesting that geographical and hydrological factors may buffer the impacts of climate. The study finds that all three lakes are jointly influenced by environmental factors such as temperature, wind speed, and precipitation; however, due to differences in altitude, lake surface area, and water transparency, their responses to these climatic factors vary significantly. For instance, SL's high altitude gives water transparency a dominant role in LIP, while BL's larger surface area enhances the impact of precipitation and thermal capacity on the melting process. This indicates that, despite facing similar climate pressures, local environmental conditions can lead to different trends in ice phenology changes. This study offers a novel and efficient monitoring method for LIP, providing valuable insights for future LIP research and water resource management.
湖泊冰物候（LIP）的变化能够直观地反映湖泊所在区域的气候演变，是气候变化的重要指标。天山位于北半球冰冻湖泊的南缘，是新疆重要的水资源基地，支撑着与人类活动密切相关的重要生态系统。在气候变化加剧的背景下，本研究聚焦于新疆中纬度地区大型湖泊群之间的地理位置、海拔和水质差异，旨在探究这些湖泊的LIP变化特征及其对驱动因素的响应，从而为有效的环境管理和保护提供依据。本研究利用多源遥感数据对赛里木湖（SL）、博斯腾湖（BL）和艾比湖（EL）三个大型湖泊的LIP变化及驱动因素进行了对比分析，以揭示全球变暖下湖泊的响应和适应机制。它有效地捕捉了结冰和融化的时间序列变化，以及对环境和气候因素的共同响应。结果表明，SL经历了显著的气候变化影响，结冰时间提前，融化速度加快；相比之下，EL和BL的变化相对较小，这表明地理和水文因素可能缓冲了气候的影响。研究发现，这三个湖泊均受到温度、风速和降水等环境因素的共同影响；然而，由于海拔、湖面面积和水体透明度的差异，它们对这些气候因素的响应差异显著。例如，SL的高海拔使水体透明度在LIP中起主导作用，而BL较大的湖面面积增强了降水和热容量对融化过程的影响。这表明，尽管面临相似的气候压力，但当地环境条件可能导致冰物候变化出现不同趋势。本研究为LIP提供了一种新颖且高效的监测方法，为未来的LIP研究和水资源管理提供了有价值的见解。
