Liu Jing, Yang Kun, Zhang Shaohua, Zeng Wenxia, Yang Xiaofang, Rao Yan, Ma Yan, Bi Changyou
Faculty of Geography Yunnan Normal University Kunming China.
GIS Technology Research Center of Resource and Environment in Western China, Ministry of Education Yunnan Normal University Kunming China.
Ecol Evol. 2025 Jan 8;15(1):e70780. doi: 10.1002/ece3.70780. eCollection 2025 Jan.
Changes in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (CS) affect the global carbon cycle, thereby influencing global climate change. Land use/land cover (LULC) shifts are key drivers of CS changes, making it crucial to predict their impact on CS for low-carbon development. Most studies model future LULC by adjusting change proportions, leading to overly subjective simulations. We integrated the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and the Land Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) dataset to simulate future LULC in Yunnan under different SSP-RCP scenarios of climate and economic development. Within the new PLUS-InVEST-LUH2 framework, we systematically analyzed LULC alterations and their effects on CS from 1980 to 2040. Results demonstrated that: (1) Forestland had the highest CS, whereas built-up land and water showed minimal levels. Western areas boast higher CS, while the east has lower. From 1980 to 2020, CS continuously decreased by 29.55 Tg. In the wake of population increase and economic advancement, the area of built-up land expanded by 2.75 times. Built-up land encroaches on other land categories and is a key cause of the reduction in CS. (2) From 2020 to 2040, mainly due to an increase in forestland, CS rose to 3934.65 Tg under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, whereas under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, primarily due to a reduction in forestland and grassland areas, CS declined to 3800.86 Tg. (3) Forestland is the primary contributor to CS, whereas the ongoing enlargement of built-up land is causing a sustained decline in CS. Scenario simulations indicate that future LULC changes under different scenarios will have a significant impact on CS in Yunnan. Under a green sustainable development pathway, Yunnan can exhibit significant carbon sink potential. Overall, this research offers a scientific reference for optimizing land management and sustainable development in Yunnan, aiding China's "double carbon" goals.
陆地生态系统碳储量（CS）的变化影响全球碳循环，进而影响全球气候变化。土地利用/土地覆盖（LULC）变化是碳储量变化的关键驱动因素，因此预测其对低碳发展的碳储量影响至关重要。大多数研究通过调整变化比例来模拟未来的土地利用/土地覆盖，导致模拟结果过于主观。我们整合了生态系统服务与权衡综合评估（InVEST）模型、土地利用斑块生成模拟（PLUS）模型和土地利用协调2（LUH2）数据集，以模拟不同气候和经济发展的SSP-RCP情景下云南未来的土地利用/土地覆盖。在新的PLUS-InVEST-LUH2框架内，我们系统地分析了1980年至2040年土地利用/土地覆盖的变化及其对碳储量的影响。结果表明：（1）林地的碳储量最高，而建设用地和水域的碳储量最低。西部地区的碳储量较高，而东部地区较低。1980年至2020年，碳储量持续减少29.55太克。随着人口增长和经济发展，建设用地面积扩大了2.75倍。建设用地侵占了其他土地类型，是碳储量减少的关键原因。（2）2020年至2040年，主要由于林地增加，在SSP1-2.6情景下，碳储量增加到3934.65太克，而在SSP2-4.5情景下，主要由于林地和草地面积减少，碳储量下降到3800.86太克。（3）林地是碳储量的主要贡献者，而建设用地的持续扩张导致碳储量持续下降。情景模拟表明，不同情景下未来的土地利用/土地覆盖变化将对云南的碳储量产生重大影响。在绿色可持续发展路径下，云南可展现出显著的碳汇潜力。总体而言，本研究为云南优化土地管理和可持续发展提供了科学参考，有助于中国实现“双碳”目标。
