Li Guiyuan, Wang Wangzhen, Li Bowen, Duan Zhongyuan, Hu Liang, Liu Jingwen
Civil Engineering school, Architecture and Environment, Hubei University of Technology, Wuhan, 430068, China.
Key Laboratory of Intelligent Health Perception and Ecological Restoration of River and Lake, Ministry of Education, Hubei University of Technology, Wuhan, 430068, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Feb 1;15(1):4017. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-88299-4.
Rapid socioeconomic growth has altered land use patterns, resulting in a surge in worldwide CO emissions, triggering global climate challenges and adversely affecting human health, safety, and sustainable socioeconomic development. As a result, immediate action is required to undertake climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study, based on the causal logic of climate change, blue-green space patterns, and carbon emissions, uses the system dynamics (SD) model, patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, and integrated valuation of ecosystem service and trade-offs (InVEST) models to simulate the evolution of blue-green space patterns and predict the spatial distribution of carbon storage in Wuhan to 2060 from 2030 under three SSP-RCP scenarios from CMIP6 and investigates their mechanisms. The findings show that across various SSP-RCP scenarios, the blue-green space patterns in Wuhan would decline over the next 30 years, with green spaces decreasing to some amount and blue spaces growing marginally. The carbon storage is also expected to decline due to the shrinking blue-green space patterns. The SSP126 scenario has the least shrinkage of blue-green spaces, resulting in a reduction of 7.18Tg in carbon storage. Under the SSP245 scenario, the expansion of non-blue-green spaces encroaches on blue-green spaces, resulting in an 8.13 Tg decrease in carbon storage. Across the SSP585 scenario, non-blue-green spaces expand the fastest, resulting in the highest loss of blue-green spaces and a considerable drop in carbon storage of 11.67 Tg. This research is extremely important for optimizing regional land use patterns, coordinating green and high-quality development in Wuhan, and assisting with the implementation of urban climate change adaptation plans.
快速的社会经济增长改变了土地利用模式，导致全球二氧化碳排放量激增，引发全球气候挑战，并对人类健康、安全和社会经济可持续发展产生不利影响。因此，需要立即采取行动实施气候缓解和适应战略。本研究基于气候变化、蓝绿空间格局和碳排放的因果逻辑，利用系统动力学（SD）模型、斑块生成土地利用模拟（PLUS）模型和生态系统服务与权衡综合评估（InVEST）模型，模拟蓝绿空间格局的演变，并预测在CMIP6的三种SSP-RCP情景下，武汉从2030年到2060年碳储量的空间分布，并探究其作用机制。研究结果表明，在各种SSP-RCP情景下，武汉的蓝绿空间格局在未来30年将下降，绿地会有一定程度减少，蓝地略有增长。由于蓝绿空间格局缩小，碳储量预计也会下降。SSP126情景下蓝绿空间的萎缩最少，导致碳储量减少7.18Tg。在SSP245情景下，非蓝绿空间的扩张侵占了蓝绿空间，导致碳储量减少8.13Tg。在SSP585情景下，非蓝绿空间扩张最快，导致蓝绿空间损失最大，碳储量大幅下降11.67Tg。本研究对于优化区域土地利用模式、协调武汉绿色和高质量发展以及协助实施城市气候变化适应计划具有极其重要的意义。
