White Malcolm C A, Nakata Nori
Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, 02139, USA.
GO Geophysics Department, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, 94720, USA.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jan 10;15(1):1638. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-85744-2.
We analyze the relationship between geothermal energy production and seismic hazards in the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF) between 1972 and 2022. A clear increase in seismic activity accompanies geothermal energy production and is greatest to the east of the Brawley fault, where the amount of injection exceeds the amount of production. We estimate that, whereas there was a 2% chance of a M6.07 earthquake nucleating inside the SSGF within a fifty-year period prior to energy production (pre-production), there is an equal probability that a M6.70 earthquake nucleates there in a fifty-year period during which historically average energy production conditions persist (syn-production). Similarly, we estimate a 2% chance of a M7.15 and M6.92 occurring in the broader Brawley Seismic Zone (excluding the SSGF) within a fifty-year period during the pre- and syn-production eras, respectively. We find that linear regression models fail to reliably forecast the background seismicity rate as a function of fluid production and injection.
我们分析了1972年至2022年期间索尔顿海地热田（SSGF）中地热能生产与地震灾害之间的关系。随着地热能生产，地震活动明显增加，且在布劳利断层以东最为显著，该区域注入量超过产出量。我们估计，在能源生产之前的五十年期间（生产前），SSGF内发生6.07级地震的概率为2%，而在历史平均能源生产条件持续的五十年期间（生产同步期），发生6.70级地震的概率与之相同。同样，我们估计在生产前和生产同步期的五十年期间，布劳利地震带（不包括SSGF）分别发生7.15级和6.92级地震的概率为2%。我们发现，线性回归模型无法可靠地预测作为流体生产和注入函数的背景地震活动率。
