Khan Tauheed Ullah, Ullah Inam, Hu Yiming, Liang Jianchao, Ahmad Shahid, Omifolaji James Kehinde, Hu Huijian
Guangdong Key Laboratory of Animal Conservation and Resource Utilization, Guangdong Public Laboratory of Wild Animal Conservation and Utilization, Institute of Zoology, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510260, China.
Institute of Biological Sciences, Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan 29220, Pakistan.
Animals (Basel). 2024 May 13;14(10):1453. doi: 10.3390/ani14101453.
The inevitable impacts of climate change have reverberated across ecosystems and caused substantial global biodiversity loss. Climate-induced habitat loss has contributed to range shifts at both species and community levels. Given the importance of identifying suitable habitats for at-risk species, it is imperative to assess potential current and future distributions, and to understand influential environmental factors. Like many species, the Demoiselle crane is not immune to climatic pressures. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces in Pakistan are known wintering grounds for this species. Given that Pakistan is among the top five countries facing devastating effects of climate change, this study sought to conduct species distribution modeling under climate change using data collected during 4 years of field surveys. We developed a Maximum Entropy distribution model to predict the current and projected future distribution of the species across the study area. Future habitat projections for 2050 and 2070 were carried out using two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) under three global circulation models, including HADGEM2-AO, BCC-CSM1-1, and CCSM4. The most influential factors shaping Demoiselle Crane habitat suitability included the temperature seasonality, annual mean temperature, terrain ruggedness index, and human population density, all of which contributed significantly to the suitability (81.3%). The model identified 35% of the study area as moderately suitable (134,068 km) and highly suitable (27,911 km) habitat for the species under current climatic conditions. Under changing climate scenarios, our model predicted a major loss of the species' current suitable habitat, with shrinkage and shift towards western-central areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan boarder. The RCP 8.5, which is the extreme climate change scenario, portrays particularly severe consequences, with habitat losses reaching 65% in 2050 and 85% in 2070. This comprehensive study provides useful insights into the Demoiselle Crane habitat's current and future dynamics in Pakistan.
气候变化带来的不可避免影响已在各生态系统中回荡，并导致全球生物多样性大幅丧失。气候引发的栖息地丧失致使物种和群落层面都出现了分布范围的变化。鉴于为濒危物种确定适宜栖息地的重要性，评估当前和未来的潜在分布情况以及了解有影响力的环境因素势在必行。与许多物种一样，蓑羽鹤也无法免受气候压力的影响。巴基斯坦的开伯尔-普赫图赫瓦省和俾路支省是该物种已知的越冬地。鉴于巴基斯坦是面临气候变化毁灭性影响的五大国家之一，本研究试图利用4年实地调查收集的数据，开展气候变化背景下的物种分布建模。我们开发了一个最大熵分布模型，以预测该物种在研究区域内当前和预计的未来分布。利用三种全球环流模型（包括HADGEM2-AO、BCC-CSM1-1和CCSM4）下的两种代表性浓度路径（RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5），对2050年和2070年的未来栖息地进行了预测。塑造蓑羽鹤栖息地适宜性的最具影响力因素包括温度季节性、年平均温度、地形崎岖度指数和人口密度，所有这些因素对适宜性的贡献率均显著（81.3%）。该模型确定，在当前气候条件下，研究区域的35%为该物种的中度适宜栖息地（134,068平方公里）和高度适宜栖息地（27,911平方公里）。在气候变化情景下，我们的模型预测该物种当前的适宜栖息地将大幅丧失，栖息地将萎缩并向巴基斯坦-阿富汗边境的中西部地区转移。RCP 8.5作为极端气候变化情景，描绘了特别严重的后果，到2050年栖息地丧失达到65%，到2070年达到85%。这项全面研究为巴基斯坦蓑羽鹤栖息地的当前和未来动态提供了有益见解。
