Long-term changes in frailty and incident atrial fibrillation, heart failure, coronary heart disease, and stroke: A prospective follow-up study.

BACKGROUND

People with frailty have increased prevalence and incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF).

OBJECTIVE

The study aimed to further investigate the association of long-term changes in frailty with risk of new-onset AF. Its associations with heart failure (HF), coronary heart disease (CHD), and stroke were also evaluated as a secondary aim.

METHODS

More than 50,000 participants from UK Biobank cohort were included, with frailty index (FI) data and free of AF, HF, CHD, or stroke in baseline and follow-up assessments. Frailty status of the participants was categorized into nonfrail, prefrail, and frail based on their FI scores. FI in baseline and follow-ups are used to calculate the trajectories of frailty (ΔFI).

RESULTS

During a median of 5.1 years of follow-up from the final assessment, 1729 cases of AF were recorded. Frailty trajectory analysis showed that even a 0.01 point per year increase in ΔFI was associated with 14% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08-1.20) higher risk of AF, independent of baseline FI after adjusting for potential confounders. Compared with maintained nonfrail participants, those with sustained frail status had the highest risk of incident AF (hazard ratio [HR] 1.95, 1.61-2.36). The risk declined by 30% (95% CI 0.53-0.94) when frail participants regressed to nonfrail or prefrail status, compared with sustained frail participants. These associations were similar in HF and CHD however not significant in stroke.

CONCLUSION

In middle-aged and elderly individuals, frailty remission or nonfrailty maintenance was associated with lower risk of AF, HF, and CHD compared with persistent frailty, regardless of previous frailty status and established risk factors.