Premier J, Bastianelli M L, Oeser J, Anders O, Andren H, Aronsson M, Bagrade G, Belotti E, Breitenmoser-Würsten C, Bufka L, Černe R, Červený J, Drouet-Hoguet N, Ďuľa M, Fuxjäger C, Herdtfelder M, Hočevar L, Jędrzejewski W, Kont R, Koubek P, Kowalczyk R, Krofel M, Krojerová-Prokešová J, Kubala J, Kusak J, Kutal M, Linnell J D C, Mattisson J, Middelhoff T L, Melovski D, Molinari-Jobin A, Odden J, Okarma H, Ornicāns A, Pagon N, Persson J, Schmidt K, Sindičić M, Slijepčević V, Tám B, Zimmermann F, Kramer-Schadt S, Heurich M
Chair of Wildlife Ecology and Management, Albert Ludwigs University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany.
Department of National Park Monitoring and Animal Management, Bavarian Forest National Park, Grafenau, Germany.
Conserv Biol. 2025 Jun;39(3):e14439. doi: 10.1111/cobi.14439. Epub 2025 Jan 14.
Survival and cause-specific mortality rates are vital for evidence-based population forecasting and conservation, particularly for large carnivores, whose populations are often vulnerable to human-caused mortalities. It is therefore important to know the relationship between anthropogenic and natural mortality causes to evaluate whether they are additive or compensatory. Further, the relation between survival and environmental covariates could reveal whether specific landscape characteristics influence demographic performance. We used telemetry data on 681 Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), a model apex predator with large spatial requirements, that were tracked across their European distribution. Through time-to-event analyses, we sought to determine the variables associated with differences in their survival. Illegal killing was the main cause of mortality (33.8%), and mortality rates were similar in protected and hunted populations (8.6% and 7.0% per year, respectively). Survival varied greatly across populations (70-95% per year). Across all study sites, higher hunting and anthropogenic mortality rates were partially compensated by lower rates of other mortality causes but not by natural mortality alone. Variation in survival depended on sex (female survival was 1.5 times greater than male survival) and seasonality (highest risk during hunting season and winter), and lower survival rates were correlated with higher human modification of landscapes at both coarse (home range composition) and fine (habitat use within home range) scales. Some variation in survival was driven by unobserved factors, which, given the high rates of human-caused mortalities, including illegal killing, are of foremost concern. Due to the low natural mortality rates in protected and hunted populations, we conclude that anthropogenic causes of mortality are likely close to additive, such that maintaining or increasing refuge habitat with little human disturbance is critical to lynx conservation.
生存率和特定原因死亡率对于基于证据的种群预测和保护至关重要，尤其是对于大型食肉动物而言，它们的种群往往易受人为导致的死亡影响。因此，了解人为和自然死亡原因之间的关系，以评估它们是相加还是互补的，这一点很重要。此外，生存与环境协变量之间的关系可以揭示特定的景观特征是否会影响种群动态表现。我们使用了关于681只欧亚猞猁（Lynx lynx）的遥测数据，欧亚猞猁是一种具有较大空间需求的典型顶级食肉动物，其分布范围涵盖整个欧洲。通过生存分析，我们试图确定与其生存差异相关的变量。非法捕杀是主要死亡原因（33.8%），受保护种群和狩猎种群的死亡率相似（分别为每年8.6%和7.0%）。不同种群的生存率差异很大（每年70%-95%）。在所有研究地点，较高的狩猎和人为死亡率部分被其他较低的死亡原因率所补偿，但并非仅由自然死亡率补偿。生存差异取决于性别（雌性生存率比雄性生存率高1.5倍）和季节性（狩猎季节和冬季风险最高），较低的生存率与在粗略（家域组成）和精细（家域内的栖息地利用）尺度上更高的人类景观改造相关。一些生存差异是由未观察到的因素驱动的，鉴于包括非法捕杀在内的高人为死亡率，这些因素是最令人担忧的。由于受保护和狩猎种群的自然死亡率较低，我们得出结论，人为死亡原因可能接近相加关系，因此，维持或增加几乎没有人类干扰的避难栖息地对于猞猁保护至关重要。
