Reynier Emmett, Rubin Edward
Department of Economics, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403.
Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education Research Fellow, Water Economics Center, Office of Water, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2025 Jan 21;122(3):e2413013121. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2413013121. Epub 2025 Jan 14.
The advent of herbicide-tolerant genetically modified (GM) crops spurred rapid and widespread use of the herbicide glyphosate throughout US agriculture. In the two decades following GM-seeds' introduction, the volume of glyphosate applied in the United States increased by more than 750%. Despite this breadth and scale, science and policy remain unresolved regarding the effects of glyphosate on human health. We identify the causal effect of glyphosate exposure on perinatal health by combining 1) county-level variation in glyphosate use driven by 2) the timing of the GM technology and 3) differential geographic suitability for GM crops. Our results suggest the introduction of GM seeds and glyphosate significantly reduced average birthweight and gestational length. While we find effects throughout the birthweight distribution, low expected-weight births experienced the largest reductions: Glyphosate's birthweight effect for births in the lowest decile is 12 times larger than that in the highest decile. Together, these estimates suggest that glyphosate exposure caused previously undocumented and unequal health costs for rural US communities over the last 20 years.
耐除草剂转基因作物的出现促使草甘膦除草剂在美国农业中迅速且广泛地使用。在转基因种子引入后的二十年里,美国草甘膦的使用量增加了超过750%。尽管使用范围如此广泛且规模巨大,但关于草甘膦对人类健康的影响,科学和政策方面仍未达成共识。我们通过结合以下因素来确定草甘膦暴露对围产期健康的因果效应:1)转基因技术的时间导致的县级草甘膦使用差异,以及2)转基因作物的不同地理适宜性。我们的研究结果表明,转基因种子和草甘膦的引入显著降低了平均出生体重和妊娠期长度。虽然我们在整个出生体重分布中都发现了影响,但预期体重低的婴儿减少幅度最大:草甘膦对出生体重处于最低十分位数的婴儿的影响比对最高十分位数的婴儿大12倍。这些估计结果共同表明,在过去20年里,草甘膦暴露给美国农村社区带来了此前未被记录的且不平等的健康成本。