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多年干旱发生频率及影响在全球范围内增加。

Global increase in the occurrence and impact of multiyear droughts.

作者信息

Chen Liangzhi, Brun Philipp, Buri Pascal, Fatichi Simone, Gessler Arthur, McCarthy Michael James, Pellicciotti Francesca, Stocker Benjamin, Karger Dirk Nikolaus

机构信息

Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland.

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore.

出版信息

Science. 2025 Jan 17;387(6731):278-284. doi: 10.1126/science.ado4245. Epub 2025 Jan 16.

Abstract

Persistent multiyear drought (MYD) events pose a growing threat to nature and humans in a changing climate. We identified and inventoried global MYDs by detecting spatiotemporally contiguous climatic anomalies, showing that MYDs have become drier, hotter, and led to increasingly diminished vegetation greenness. The global terrestrial land affected by MYDs has increased at a rate of 49,279 ± 14,771 square kilometers per year from 1980 to 2018. Temperate grasslands have exhibited the greatest declines in vegetation greenness during MYDs, whereas boreal and tropical forests have had comparably minor responses. With MYDs becoming more common, this global quantitative inventory of the occurrence, severity, trend, and impact of MYDs provides an important benchmark for facilitating more effective and collaborative preparedness toward mitigation of and adaptation to such extreme events.

摘要

持续多年的干旱(MYD)事件在气候变化的背景下,对自然和人类构成了日益严重的威胁。我们通过检测时空连续的气候异常来识别和统计全球的多年干旱事件,结果表明多年干旱事件变得更加干燥、炎热,导致植被绿度日益降低。从1980年到2018年,受多年干旱事件影响的全球陆地面积以每年49279±14771平方公里的速度增加。在多年干旱期间,温带草原的植被绿度下降最为明显,而北方和热带森林的响应相对较小。随着多年干旱事件变得越来越普遍,这种对多年干旱事件的发生、严重程度、趋势和影响的全球定量统计为促进更有效和协作性的应对此类极端事件的准备工作提供了重要基准。

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