Češljar Goran, Baković Zvonimir, Đorđević Ilija, Eremija Saša, Lučić Aleksandar, Živanović Ivana, Konatar Bojan
Department of Spatial Regulation, GIS and Forest Policy, Institute of Forestry, Kneza Višeslava 3, 11030 Belgrade, Serbia.
Department of Forestry and Environmental Protection, Public Enterprise "Srbijašume", Bulevar Mihajla Pupina 113, 11070 Beograd, Serbia.
Plants (Basel). 2025 Jun 20;14(13):1904. doi: 10.3390/plants14131904.
Droughts accompanied by high temperatures are becoming increasingly frequent across Europe and globally. Both individual trees and entire forest ecosystems are exposed to drought stress, with prolonged drought periods leading to increased tree mortality. Therefore, continuous monitoring, data collection, and analysis of tree mortality are essential prerequisites for understanding the complex interactions between climate and trees. This study examined the effects of short-term and prolonged (multi-year) droughts on the mortality of individual trees and forests in Serbia. The analysis was based on datasets from our previous research on the influence of drought and drought duration on individual tree mortality in Serbian forest ecosystems, supplemented with new data collected through the International Co-operative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests (ICP Forests). Additionally, we incorporated data from the public enterprise (PE) "Srbijašume", which manages forests in Central Serbia, focusing on random yields resulting from natural disasters (droughts). These data enabled a comparative assessment of the findings on increased mortality and drought impact at both the individual tree level and the stand level. This study identifies key similarities and differences in tree mortality trends based on drought duration and examines their correlations within the same time frame (2004-2023). By analysing climatic conditions across Serbia, we provide evidence of the interaction between drought periods and increased forest mortality, which we further confirmed by calculating the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We also address the tree species that were most sensitive to the effects of drought. Our findings indicate that prolonged (multi-year) droughts, accompanied by high temperatures, have significantly contributed to increased tree mortality over the past decade. Successive multi-year droughts pose a substantial threat to both individual trees and entire forests, producing more severe and persistent responses compared to those caused by single-year droughts, which forests and individual trees are generally more capable of tolerating. Moreover, due to prolonged drought stress, trees weaken, leading to delayed mortality that may manifest several years after the initial drought event. The observed increase in tree mortality has been found to correlate with rising temperatures and the growing frequency of prolonged droughts over the past decade. Especially, intense droughts in the growing season (April-September) have a very negative impact on forests.
在欧洲乃至全球范围内,高温伴随干旱的情况愈发频繁。无论是单棵树木还是整个森林生态系统,都面临着干旱胁迫,长期干旱导致树木死亡率上升。因此,持续监测、数据收集以及对树木死亡率的分析,是理解气候与树木之间复杂相互作用的必要前提。本研究考察了短期和长期(多年)干旱对塞尔维亚单棵树木和森林死亡率的影响。分析基于我们之前关于干旱和干旱持续时间对塞尔维亚森林生态系统中单棵树木死亡率影响的研究数据集,并补充了通过国际森林空气污染影响评估与监测合作计划(ICP森林计划)收集的新数据。此外,我们纳入了塞尔维亚中部森林管理公共企业(PE)“Srbijašume”的数据,重点关注自然灾害(干旱)造成的随机产量。这些数据使得能够在单棵树木层面和林分层面上对死亡率增加和干旱影响的研究结果进行比较评估。本研究确定了基于干旱持续时间的树木死亡率趋势的关键异同点,并考察了它们在同一时间框架(2004 - 2023年)内的相关性。通过分析塞尔维亚各地的气候条件,我们提供了干旱期与森林死亡率增加之间相互作用的证据,通过计算标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)进一步证实了这一点。我们还探讨了对干旱影响最敏感的树种。我们的研究结果表明,过去十年中,高温伴随的长期(多年)干旱显著导致了树木死亡率的上升。连续多年的干旱对单棵树木和整个森林都构成了重大威胁,与单年干旱相比,产生的反应更为严重和持久,而森林和单棵树木通常更能耐受单年干旱。此外,由于长期干旱胁迫,树木变弱,导致死亡率延迟,可能在最初干旱事件发生数年之后才显现出来。过去十年中观察到的树木死亡率上升与气温升高以及长期干旱频率增加相关。特别是生长季节(4月至9月)的严重干旱对森林有非常负面的影响。