Satheesh Kumar Athira, Bauch Chris T, Anand Madhur
Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.
School of Environmental Science, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada.
PLoS One. 2025 Jan 16;20(1):e0317338. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0317338. eCollection 2025.
Individual attitudes vastly affect the transformations we are experiencing and are vital in mitigating or intensifying climate change. A socio-climate model by coupling a model of rumor dynamics in heterogeneous networks to a simple Earth System model is developed, in order to analyze how rumors about climate change impact individuals' opinions when they may choose to either believe or reject the rumors they come across over time. Our model assumes that when individuals experience an increase in the global temperature, they tend to not believe the rumors they come across. The rumor rejectors limit their CO2 emissions to reduce global temperature. Our numerical analysis indicates that, over time, the temperature anomaly becomes less affected by the variations in rumor propagation parameters, and having larger groups (having more members) is more efficient in reducing temperature (by efficiently propagating rumors) than having numerous small groups. It is observed that decreasing the number of individual connections does not reduce the size of the rejector population when there are large numbers of messages sent through groups. Mitigation strategies considered by the rejectors are highly influential. The absence of mitigative behavior in rejectors can cause an increase in the global average temperature by 0.5°C. Our model indicates that rumor propagation in groups has the upper hand in controlling temperature change, compared to individual climate-denying propagation.
个人态度极大地影响着我们正在经历的转变,并且在缓解或加剧气候变化方面至关重要。通过将异质网络中的谣言传播模型与简单的地球系统模型相结合,开发了一种社会气候模型,以分析关于气候变化的谣言在个人可能随着时间推移选择相信或拒绝所遇到的谣言时如何影响个人观点。我们的模型假设,当个人经历全球气温上升时,他们往往不相信所遇到的谣言。谣言拒绝者会限制他们的二氧化碳排放以降低全球气温。我们的数值分析表明,随着时间的推移,温度异常受谣言传播参数变化的影响越来越小,并且拥有较大的群体(成员更多)在降低温度方面(通过有效地传播谣言)比拥有众多小群体更有效。据观察,当通过群体发送大量消息时,减少个人连接数量并不会减少拒绝者群体的规模。拒绝者所考虑的缓解策略具有高度影响力。拒绝者缺乏缓解行为可能会导致全球平均气温上升0.5摄氏度。我们的模型表明,与个人否认气候变化的传播相比,群体中的谣言传播在控制温度变化方面占上风。