Mechanisms and effects of the upgrading of consumption structure on household carbon emissions -evidence from the yangtze river economic belt.

As the economy enters the "new normal" and the upgrading of consumption structure enters a critical period of acceleration, under the dual background of accelerating the upgrading of consumption structure and realizing carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, it is of great significance to explore the impacts of the upgrading of consumption structure on the carbon emissions of households and the internal mechanism, so as to clarify how to promote the carbon emission reduction of households from the consumption side. This study calculates the household carbon emissions of 10 provinces and 1 municipality in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2012 to 2021 from direct and indirect perspectives. Using panel data, a fixed effect and mediating effect model is constructed to explore the mechanism of consumption structure upgrading affecting household carbon emissions. The spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of household carbon emissions are further analyzed, and the spatial Dubin model is constructed to study the spatial spillover effect of consumption structure upgrading on household carbon emissions. The results show that: (1) The upgrading of consumption structure is conducive to reducing household carbon emissions and passes the robustness test. (2) According to the mediating effect analysis, the upgrading of consumption structure reduces household carbon emissions by promoting technological innovation, effectively improving energy efficiency. (3) There is a significant negative spatial spillover effect on household carbon emissions. The upgrading of consumption structure can not only reduce household carbon emissions in the region, but also have a significant inhibitory effect on household carbon emissions in the surrounding areas. In order to reduce household carbon emissions, this study proposes policies to promote upgrading of consumption structure and technological innovation in accordance with local conditions, which will serve as a reference for policy makers and contribute to the accounting and monitoring system of household carbon emissions, which will help to realize China's "dual-carbon goal".