Cao Bo, Bai Chengke, Wu Kunyi, La Ting, Chen Wenwen, Liu Lianjin, Zhou Xiaofang, Chen Chong, Li Xian, Su Yiyang, Che Lingyu, Li Guishuang
Department of Infectious Diseases, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710004, China; Core Research Laboratory, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710004, China; Key Laboratory of Surgical Critical Care and Life Support (Xi'an Jiaotong University), Ministry of Education, Xi'an, 710004, China; College of Life Sciences, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, 710119, China.
College of Life Sciences, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, 710119, China.
J Environ Manage. 2025 Feb;374:124129. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124129. Epub 2025 Jan 16.
In recent decades, the threats of ticks and tick-borne diseases (TBDs) increased extensively with environmental change, urbanization, and rapidly changing interactions between human and animals. However, large-scale distribution of tick and TBD risks as well as their relationship with environmental change remain inadequately unclear. Here, we first proposed a "tick-pathogen-habitat-human" model to project the global potential distribution of main pathogenic ticks using a total of 70,714 occurrence records. Meanwhile, the effects of ecological factors and socio-economic factors driving the distribution pattern were evaluated. Based on this, the risk distribution of TBDs was projected by large-scale "tick-pathogen-disease" analysis. Furthermore, the distribution shifts of tick suitability were projected under different shared socio-economic pathways in the future. Our findings demonstrate that warm temperate countries (e.g., the United States, China and European countries) in the Northern Hemisphere represent significant high risk regions for ticks and TBDs. Specifically, solar radiation of January emerges as the main decisive factor determining the risk distribution pattern. Future shifts of tick suitability showed decrease trend under low greenhouse gas emission scenarios but increase trend under high scenarios. These suitability shifts were significantly correlated with future temperature- (9 species) and precipitation- (19 species) related factors. Collectively, in this study we first shaped the global risk distribution of main ticks and TBDs as well as tick suitability shifts correlated with future global climate change, which will provide helpful references for disease prevention and administration. The methods proposed here will also shed light on other emerging and recurrent zoonotic diseases (e.g., COVID-19, monkeypox) in the future.
近几十年来，随着环境变化、城市化以及人类与动物之间相互作用的迅速改变，蜱虫和蜱传疾病（TBDs）的威胁大幅增加。然而，蜱虫和TBDs风险的大规模分布及其与环境变化的关系仍不够明确。在此，我们首次提出了一个“蜱虫-病原体-栖息地-人类”模型，利用总共70714条出现记录来预测主要致病蜱虫的全球潜在分布。同时，评估了驱动分布模式的生态因素和社会经济因素的影响。基于此，通过大规模的“蜱虫-病原体-疾病”分析预测了TBDs的风险分布。此外，还预测了未来不同共享社会经济路径下蜱虫适宜性的分布变化。我们的研究结果表明，北半球的暖温带国家（如美国、中国和欧洲国家）是蜱虫和TBDs的显著高风险地区。具体而言，1月份的太阳辐射是决定风险分布模式的主要决定性因素。蜱虫适宜性的未来变化在低温室气体排放情景下呈下降趋势，而在高温情景下呈上升趋势。这些适宜性变化与未来温度相关因素（9种）和降水相关因素（19种）显著相关。总体而言，在本研究中，我们首次描绘了主要蜱虫和TBDs的全球风险分布以及与未来全球气候变化相关的蜱虫适宜性变化，这将为疾病预防和管理提供有益参考。这里提出的方法也将为未来其他新出现和反复出现的人畜共患病（如COVID-19、猴痘）提供启示。
