Zhang Liang, Wang Ping, Xie Guanglin, Wang Wenkai
Institute of Entomology, College of Agriculture, Yangtze University, Jingzhou, China.
MARA Key Laboratory of Sustainable Crop Production in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River (Co-Construction by Ministry and Province), College of Agriculture, Yangtze University, Jingzhou, China.
J Econ Entomol. 2025 Apr 26;118(2):746-759. doi: 10.1093/jee/toae308.
The Anoplophora chinensis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) (Forster), a serious phytophagous pest threatening Castanea mollissima Blume and Castanea seguinii Dode, poses risks of ecological imbalance, significant economic loss, and increased management difficulties if not properly controlled. This study employs optimized MaxEnt models to analyze the potential distribution areas of A. chinensis and its host plants under current and future climate conditions, identifying their movement pathways and relative dynamics. Results indicate that all models achieved an average AUC value exceeding 0.86, demonstrating low complexity and high predictive accuracy. The key climatic variables influencing the geographic distribution of A. chinensis and its host plants include temperature and moisture-related bioclimatic variables such as mean diurnal range, minimum temp of coldest month, mean temp of wettest quarter, annual precipitation, precipitation of driest month, and precipitation seasonality. Under both current and future conditions, these 3 species are primarily distributed in the southwestern regions of China. Notably, the suitable growth area for all 3 species shows varying degrees of increase. Additionally, C. mollissima and C. seguinii exhibit a trend of eastward displacement in response to climate change. Overall, the findings provide significant practical value for the monitoring, early warning, and targeted control strategies for A. chinensis. Furthermore, these results offer a basis for timely conservation strategies to mitigate the potential impacts of climate change.
光肩星天牛（鞘翅目：天牛科）（Forster）是一种严重的植食性害虫，威胁着板栗（Castanea mollissima Blume）和茅栗（Castanea seguinii Dode），如果不加以妥善控制，会带来生态失衡、重大经济损失以及管理难度增加等风险。本研究采用优化的最大熵模型，分析了光肩星天牛及其寄主植物在当前和未来气候条件下的潜在分布区域，确定它们的迁移路径和相对动态。结果表明，所有模型的平均AUC值均超过0.86，显示出低复杂性和高预测准确性。影响光肩星天牛及其寄主植物地理分布的关键气候变量包括温度和与湿度相关的生物气候变量，如平均日较差、最冷月最低温度、最湿季度平均温度、年降水量、最干月降水量以及降水季节性。在当前和未来条件下，这3个物种主要分布在中国西南部地区。值得注意的是，这3个物种的适宜生长区域均呈现出不同程度的增加。此外，板栗和茅栗因气候变化表现出向东迁移的趋势。总体而言，这些发现为光肩星天牛的监测、预警和针对性防治策略提供了重要的实践价值。此外，这些结果为及时采取保护策略以减轻气候变化的潜在影响提供了依据。
