Xi Shaoyang, Guo Xudong, Ma Xiaohui, Jin Ling
College of Pharmacy, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, 730000, PR China.
Gansu Pharmaceutical Industry Innovation Research Institute, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, 730000, PR China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jan 28;15(1):3508. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-87436-3.
Climate change is shifting optimal habitats for medicinal plants, potentially compromising the efficacy and therapeutic value of herbal remedies. Global warming and increased extreme weather events threaten the sustainability and pharmaceutical integrity of Angelica sinensis (Oliv.) Diels (A. sinensis). Despite its importance in traditional herbal medicine, there is limited research on adaptation of A. sinensis to climate challenges. This study systematically collected occurrence data of A. sinensis through field expeditions and online databases, using the Maxent ecological niche modeling tool and ArcGIS software to forecast suitable habitats. A total of 402 species occurrence points and 21 environmental variables were selected for modeling, resulting in 1,160 distribution models, of which only one met the stringent 5% odds ratio (OR) standard. The optimal model exhibited a pROC value of 0, an OR of 0.0196, and an AICc score of 9,287.133. The model, run ten times for robustness, showed an average AUC of 0.980, indicating high accuracy and reliability. Under current climate conditions, suitable habitats for A. sinensis cover approximately 13% of mainland China, primarily in Gansu (73.77%), Qinghai (14.73%), and Sichuan (11.18%) provinces. Environmental factors such as altitude, humidity, and temperature significantly influence the geographical distribution of A. sinensis. The future climate scenario predictions suggest that suitable habitats will generally shift towards higher latitudes, with areas of moderate to high suitability primarily distributed across the provinces of Gansu and Qinghai. The interactions between environmental factors, characterized by mutual and nonlinear enhancement, further influence the spatial differentiation of suitability zones. Overlay analysis with 2020 land cover data indicated that 861,437 km² of arable and forest land are suitable for A. sinensis cultivation. Future predictions under four SSP scenarios show varying changes in suitable habitat areas, with the most significant expansion under SSP370 between 2080 and 2100, covering 14.54% of mainland China. These findings provide critical insights for optimizing A. sinensis cultivation regions and quality assessments in response to climate change.
气候变化正在改变药用植物的最佳栖息地，可能会损害草药的功效和治疗价值。全球变暖和极端天气事件增多威胁着当归（Angelica sinensis (Oliv.) Diels）的可持续性和药用完整性。尽管当归在传统草药中很重要，但关于其对气候挑战适应性的研究却很有限。本研究通过实地考察和在线数据库系统收集了当归的分布数据，使用最大熵生态位建模工具和ArcGIS软件预测适宜栖息地。共选择402个物种分布点和21个环境变量进行建模，得到1160个分布模型，其中只有一个符合严格的5%优势比（OR）标准。最优模型的pROC值为0，OR为0.0196，AICc评分为9287.133。该模型运行十次以确保稳健性，平均AUC为0.980，表明具有较高的准确性和可靠性。在当前气候条件下，当归在中国内地的适宜栖息地约占13%，主要分布在甘肃（73.77%）、青海（14.73%）和四川（11.18%）三省。海拔、湿度和温度等环境因素显著影响当归的地理分布。未来气候情景预测表明，适宜栖息地总体上将向高纬度地区转移，中高度适宜区主要分布在甘肃和青海两省。环境因素之间的相互作用具有相互和非线性增强的特点，进一步影响适宜区的空间分异。与2020年土地覆盖数据的叠加分析表明，有861437平方千米的耕地和林地适合种植当归。未来在四种共享社会经济路径（SSP）情景下的预测显示，适宜栖息地面积变化各异，其中SSP370情景下2080年至2100年扩张最为显著，覆盖中国内地的14.54%。这些发现为应对气候变化优化当归种植区域和质量评估提供了关键见解。
