Cook Philip J, Jeuland Marc, Ludwig Jens
Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708.
Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2025 Jan 28;122(4):e2419864122. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2419864122. Epub 2025 Jan 21.
Justifying a proposed government regulation intended to reduce firearm violence requires a conceptually sound estimate of the monetized value of that impact and how that value is distributed across the population. Some previous estimates do not serve as a valid basis for policy evaluation or are out of date. A nationally representative survey was conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research in August 2022 (n = 660). The authors designed and added a series of contingent-valuation items to the questionnaire. Double-bounded estimates of willingness-to-pay (WTP) were derived from a regression analysis of responses regarding voting on a hypothetical referendum on a state-wide package of measures designed to reduce gun violence at specified cost to taxpayers. Average WTP for a reduction of 20% in the state rate of gun violence was $744 per household (IQR:$668-$928), implying a national total of $97.6 billion. Household WTP was positively associated with household income, the respondent's assessment of the seriousness of gun violence in their community and the subjective likelihood that they would become a victim of gun violence. A variety of tests support the claim that this application of the contingent-valuation method provided valid results. WTP is the recognized basis for assessing the value of proposed federal regulations. The estimated WTP for reducing gun violence is about twice as high as a recent cost-of-injury estimate and provides a much different picture of the incidence of costs by income and demographic characteristics.
要证明一项旨在减少枪支暴力的政府法规提案合理，需要对该影响的货币化价值及其在人群中的分布方式进行概念上合理的估计。一些先前的估计不能作为政策评估的有效依据，或者已经过时。2022年8月，美联社-全国民意研究中心公共事务研究中心进行了一项具有全国代表性的调查（n = 660）。作者在问卷中设计并添加了一系列条件估值项目。支付意愿（WTP）的双边界估计值来自对关于在一项旨在以特定成本降低枪支暴力的全州范围措施包的假设全民公投上投票的回复进行的回归分析。枪支暴力发生率降低20%时，每户的平均支付意愿为744美元（四分位距：668美元至928美元），这意味着全国总计976亿美元。家庭支付意愿与家庭收入、受访者对其社区枪支暴力严重程度的评估以及他们成为枪支暴力受害者的主观可能性呈正相关。各种测试支持了这样的说法，即这种条件估值方法的应用提供了有效的结果。支付意愿是评估拟议联邦法规价值的公认依据。减少枪支暴力的估计支付意愿约为最近伤害成本估计值的两倍，并提供了一幅关于成本按收入和人口特征分布情况的截然不同的图景。
