Usman Ojonugwa, Ozkan Oktay, Nwani Chinazaekpere, Bekun Festus Victor, Alola Andrew Adewale
Department of Economics, Istanbul Ticaret University, Istanbul, Turkey.
University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw, Warszawa, Poland.
PLoS One. 2025 Jan 21;20(1):e0307840. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0307840. eCollection 2025.
Even though the effect of oil price shocks on macroeconomics has been extensively investigated, the literature on how efficiency in household energy use affect crude oil price volatility is yet explored. This study unveils whether household energy efficiency lower crude oil price volatility asymmetrically in the United States using the historical and forecast dataset that spans from 1970:Q1-2040:Q1. Applying the multivariate case of Quantile-on-Quantile Regression, the empirical results show that household energy efficiency dampens crude oil price volatility with a stronger connection in quantiles before the median quantiles of crude oil price volatility. However, the effect of household energy efficiency decreases with an increase across quantiles of the crude oil price volatility. The results further show that energy-related CO2 emissions and retail electricity price intensify crude oil price volatility with varying effects across quantiles. These findings are similar to the sensitivity analysis and robustness checks. Overall, the policy implication of our findings is that government and policymakers need to demonstrate unequivocal commitments to improving not only energy-efficient practices at household level but also to mitigate energy-related environmental disasters.
尽管油价冲击对宏观经济的影响已得到广泛研究，但关于家庭能源使用效率如何影响原油价格波动的文献仍有待探索。本研究利用涵盖1970年第一季度至2040年第一季度的历史和预测数据集，揭示了美国的家庭能源效率是否会不对称地降低原油价格波动。应用分位数对分位数回归的多变量案例，实证结果表明，家庭能源效率抑制了原油价格波动，在原油价格波动中位数分位数之前的分位数中，两者的联系更为紧密。然而，随着原油价格波动分位数的增加，家庭能源效率的影响会减弱。结果还表明，与能源相关的二氧化碳排放和零售电价加剧了原油价格波动，且在不同分位数上的影响各不相同。这些发现与敏感性分析和稳健性检验的结果相似。总体而言，我们研究结果的政策含义是，政府和政策制定者不仅需要明确承诺改善家庭层面的节能做法，还需要减轻与能源相关的环境灾难。
