Shou Songting, Liu Rui, He Jie, Jiang Xiaochen, Liu Fudong, Li Yi, Zhang Xiyuan, En Geer, Pu Zhiqing, Hua Baojin, Pang Bo, Zhang Xing
Guang'anmen Hospital, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Beijing, China.
Department of Health Management, Women and Children's Hospital, School of Medicine, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China.
BMJ Open Gastroenterol. 2025 Jan 21;12(1):e001544. doi: 10.1136/bmjgast-2024-001544.
The aetiology of pancreatic cancer is complex, and there is limited research on its incidence. We aimed to investigate the incidence trends of pancreatic cancer in 43 countries and predict trends up to 2030.
The annual incidence of pancreatic cancer was obtained from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database, which comprises 108 cancer registries from 43 countries. Based on available data, we calculated age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100 000 people for 1988-2012. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the number of new cases and incidence rates up to 2030.
From 1988 to 2012, the global incidence rate of pancreatic cancer showed a continuously increasing trend, with the ASR increasing from 5.89 in 1988 to 6.78 in 2012, representing an overall average annual percentage change of 8.45%. This increasing trend is expected to persist in most selected countries, whereas a few countries are projected to exhibit a declining trend by 2030.
It appears that the future global incidence of pancreatic cancer is on the rise, but the rate of increase varies among different countries, with some showing a declining trend.
胰腺癌的病因复杂，对其发病率的研究有限。我们旨在调查43个国家胰腺癌的发病趋势，并预测至2030年的发病趋势。
胰腺癌的年发病率数据来自《五大洲癌症发病率》数据库，该数据库包含来自43个国家的108个癌症登记处的数据。基于现有数据，我们计算了1988 - 2012年每10万人的年龄标准化发病率（ASRs）。采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测至2030年的新发病例数和发病率。
1988年至2012年，全球胰腺癌发病率呈持续上升趋势，年龄标准化发病率从1988年的5.89上升至2012年的6.78，总体年均变化率为8.45%。预计在大多数选定国家，这一上升趋势将持续，而少数国家预计到2030年将呈下降趋势。
未来全球胰腺癌发病率似乎呈上升趋势，但不同国家的上升速度有所不同，有些国家呈下降趋势。
