Impact of diabetes remission or progression on the incidence of cardiovascular disease in Japan: historical cohort study using a nationwide claims database.

BACKGROUND

Previous studies demonstrated that diabetes remission can occur during intensive intervention and in real-world settings. However, the impact of diabetes remission in real-world settings on the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains unclear.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 299,967 individuals aged 20-72 years who underwent multiple checkups between 2008 and 2020 and completed ≥ 3 years of follow-up. Patients were divided into four groups according to changes in glycated hemoglobin levels and the use of diabetes medications during the 1-year baseline period: diabetes mellitus (DM)+/no remission, DM+/remission, DM-/no progression, and DM-/progression. The risk of CVD was evaluated using multivariable Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

The median follow-up period was 5.0 years. The rates of CVD in the DM+/no remission, DM+/remission, DM-/no progression, and DM-/progression groups were 7.96, 4.76, 1.99, and 5.47 per 1000 person-years, respectively. Compared with DM+/no remission, DM+/remission reduced the risk of CVD [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.57-0.89]. Meanwhile, the HR for CVD in the DM+/remission group was 0.75 (95% CI = 0.56-0.99) for change in BMI ≤ 0%, versus 0.66 (95% CI = 0.45-0.96) for change in BMI > 0%.

CONCLUSIONS

In a real-world setting without intensive intervention, diabetes remission decreased the risk of CVD by approximately 30% regardless of changes in BMI, suggesting that diabetes remission can prevent CVD without weight loss in routine care and emphasizing the importance of achieving remission.