Yu Lei, Zou Shan, Zhou Qingshan, Cheng Beibei, Jin Jun
Jinan University, Guangzhou, China.
Department of Intensive Care Unit, The University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen, China.
PLoS One. 2025 Jan 23;20(1):e0316029. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0316029. eCollection 2025.
OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram to predict the risk of sepsis in non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) patients using data from the MIMIC-IV database. METHODS: A total of 803 SAH patients meeting the inclusion criteria were randomly divided into a training set (563 cases) and a validation set (240 cases). Independent prognostic factors were identified through forward stepwise logistic regression, and a nomogram was created based on these factors. The discriminative ability of the nomogram was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and compared with the SOFA score. The model's consistency was evaluated using the C-index, and the improvement in performance over the SOFA score was calculated using integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification improvement (NRI). RESULTS: Five independent predictive factors were identified through LASSO regression analysis: mechanical ventilation, hyperlipidemia, temperature, white blood cell count, and red blood cell count. The AUC of the nomogram in the training and validation sets were 0.854 and 0.824, respectively, both higher than the SOFA score. NRI and IDI results indicated that the nomogram outperformed the SOFA score in identifying sepsis risk. Calibration curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test demonstrated good calibration of the nomogram. Decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram had higher net benefit in clinical application. CONCLUSION: The nomogram developed in this study performed excellently in predicting the risk of sepsis in SAH patients, surpassing the traditional SOFA scoring system, and has significant clinical application value.
目的:本研究旨在利用MIMIC-IV数据库中的数据,开发并验证一种列线图,以预测非创伤性蛛网膜下腔出血(SAH)患者发生脓毒症的风险。 方法:总共803例符合纳入标准的SAH患者被随机分为训练集(563例)和验证集(240例)。通过向前逐步逻辑回归确定独立的预后因素,并基于这些因素创建列线图。使用受试者操作特征曲线下面积(AUC)评估列线图的判别能力,并与序贯器官衰竭评估(SOFA)评分进行比较。使用C指数评估模型的一致性,并使用综合判别改善(IDI)和净重新分类改善(NRI)计算其相对于SOFA评分的性能改善情况。 结果:通过LASSO回归分析确定了五个独立的预测因素:机械通气、高脂血症、体温、白细胞计数和红细胞计数。训练集和验证集中列线图的AUC分别为0.854和0.824,均高于SOFA评分。NRI和IDI结果表明,列线图在识别脓毒症风险方面优于SOFA评分。校准曲线和Hosmer-Lemeshow检验表明列线图具有良好的校准。决策曲线分析表明,列线图在临床应用中具有更高的净效益。 结论:本研究开发的列线图在预测SAH患者脓毒症风险方面表现出色,优于传统的SOFA评分系统,具有显著的临床应用价值。
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