Gianella Fatima, Burrows Michael T, Davidson Keith
Scottish Association for Marine Science-UHI, Oban PA37 1QA, UK.
Toxins (Basel). 2025 Jan 13;17(1):35. doi: 10.3390/toxins17010035.
This study explored harmful algal bloom (HAB) risk as a function of exposure, hazard and vulnerability, using Scotland as a case study. Exposure was defined as the fish biomass estimated to be lost from a bloom event, based on the total recorded annual production. Hazard was estimated from literature-reported bloom events. Vulnerability was calculated from records of the number of employees (2020), as an estimate of aquaculture-based employment. The dinoflagellate was identified as the HAB species with the highest frequency of reported bloom events in Scotland, with variable spatial and temporal reports, but environmental and climatological variables regulating these events are currently unknown. The Shetland Islands region exhibited the highest combined HAB risk, with the highest scores in all three components. Vulnerability was particularly important to overall risk within an island setting, where a larger proportion of the population was dependent on aquaculture. The analysis demonstrated the potential to evaluate the economic and social consequences of HAB events on the aquaculture industry. As fish-killing HABs and fish health impacts are likely under-reported, more transparent reporting of events and related fish health and physiological consequences is recommended for a more quantitative application of this approach.
本研究以苏格兰为案例，探讨了有害藻华（HAB）风险与暴露、危害和脆弱性之间的函数关系。暴露被定义为根据年度记录总产量估算的藻华事件导致的鱼类生物量损失。危害是根据文献报道的藻华事件估算得出的。脆弱性是根据2020年员工数量记录计算得出的，以此作为水产养殖相关就业情况的估计。在苏格兰，甲藻被确定为报告藻华事件频率最高的有害藻华物种，其空间和时间报告存在差异，但目前尚不清楚调节这些事件的环境和气候变量。设得兰群岛地区的有害藻华综合风险最高，在所有三个组成部分中得分最高。在岛屿环境中，脆弱性对总体风险尤为重要，因为该地区很大一部分人口依赖水产养殖。分析表明，有可能评估有害藻华事件对水产养殖业的经济和社会影响。由于鱼类致死性有害藻华事件和对鱼类健康的影响可能未得到充分报告，建议更透明地报告相关事件以及鱼类健康和生理后果，以便更定量地应用此方法。
