Mi Jackson Jinhong, Ahmed Shek, Chen Yanhui
School of Economics & Management, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai, China.
Department of Mathematics, University of Barishal, Barisal, Bangladesh.
PLoS One. 2025 Jan 24;20(1):e0317487. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0317487. eCollection 2025.
Analyzing the interactions between spot and time charter freight is crucial for the maritime industry. While numerous studies have explored the relationship between average freight indices and spillover effects, a gap remains in understanding the deeper connections between inter-regional shipping routes and chartering contracts. This research investigates the role of Capesize freight dynamics in shaping the regional dry bulk freight market, with a focus on the influence of energy and commodity price fluctuations. Utilizing the TVP-VAR model, we identify distinct trends across various investment horizons. The analysis reveals that short-term spillovers dominate the system, with crude oil serving as a consistent shock transmitter within the time charter network. The China-Brazil route drives spillovers across all periods, while the Australia-China route transitions from absorbing short-term volatility to transmitting long-term shocks. Similarly, the Tubarão-Rotterdam and Bolivar-Rotterdam routes display comparable shifts, transmitting short-term spillovers but absorbing long-term volatility. These findings offer valuable insights for stakeholders seeking to manage risks amidst economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
分析即期租船运费和定期租船运费之间的相互作用对海运业至关重要。虽然众多研究探讨了平均运费指数与溢出效应之间的关系，但在理解区域间航运路线与租船合同之间的深层联系方面仍存在差距。本研究调查了好望角型船运费动态在塑造区域干散货运输市场中的作用，重点关注能源和商品价格波动的影响。利用时变参数向量自回归（TVP-VAR）模型，我们识别了不同投资期限内的不同趋势。分析表明，短期溢出效应主导着该系统，原油在定期租船网络中是持续的冲击传递者。中国-巴西航线在所有时期都推动着溢出效应，而澳大利亚-中国航线则从吸收短期波动转变为传递长期冲击。同样，图巴朗-鹿特丹和玻利瓦尔-鹿特丹航线也呈现出类似的转变，传递短期溢出效应但吸收长期波动。这些发现为寻求在经济和地缘政治不确定性中管理风险的利益相关者提供了宝贵的见解。
