Wagatsuma Keita
Division of International Health (Public Health), Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata University, Niigata, Japan; Institute for Research Administration, Niigata University, Niigata, Japan.
Public Health. 2025 Mar;240:48-51. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2025.01.015. Epub 2025 Jan 24.
Mumps (infectious parotitis) is an acute respiratory illness caused by the mumps virus in humans. While numerous studies have explored the impact of climate variability on mumps incidence in specific cities or regions, few have analyzed nationwide associations across multiple locations. This study aims to systematically assess the short-term effects of meteorological factors on mumps incidence across Japan over a 15-year period.
Weekly time-series of mumps cases and meteorological factors in the period 2005-2019 were collated from the 47 Japanese prefectures.
A two-stage time-series design was employed. The exposure-response relationships between incidence of mumps, mean temperature, and relative humidity were quantified using a quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model for each prefecture and the estimates from all the prefectures were then pooled using a multivariate mete-regression model to derive nationwide average associations.
Between 2005 and 2019, 1,455,583 mumps cases were reported. Our results indicate that increased mean temperature and relative humidity are positively associated with increased mumps incidence in Japan. Specifically, using -1.3 °C as the reference temperature, the relative risk (RR) of mumps peaked at 19.4 °C, with an RR of 1.16 (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.24). For humidity, using 45.5 % as the reference, the RR peaked at 68.3 %, with an RR of 1.05 (95 % CI: 1.02-1.09).
Our findings demonstrate the influence of heat and humidity on mumps incidence in Japan and underscore the need for preventive measures to mitigate the impact of climate variability on mumps transmission.
腮腺炎（传染性腮腺炎）是由腮腺炎病毒引起的一种人类急性呼吸道疾病。虽然众多研究探讨了气候变异性对特定城市或地区腮腺炎发病率的影响，但很少有研究分析多个地点的全国性关联。本研究旨在系统评估气象因素在15年期间对日本全国腮腺炎发病率的短期影响。
整理了2005 - 2019年期间日本47个都道府县的腮腺炎病例和气象因素的每周时间序列。
采用两阶段时间序列设计。使用准泊松回归和分布滞后非线性模型对每个都道府县量化腮腺炎发病率、平均温度和相对湿度之间的暴露 - 反应关系，然后使用多变量气象回归模型汇总所有都道府县的估计值，以得出全国平均关联。
2005年至2019年期间，共报告了1,455,583例腮腺炎病例。我们的结果表明，平均温度和相对湿度升高与日本腮腺炎发病率增加呈正相关。具体而言，以 -1.3°C作为参考温度，腮腺炎的相对风险（RR）在19.4°C时达到峰值，RR为1.16（95%置信区间[CI]：1.08 - 1.24）。对于湿度，以45.5%作为参考，RR在68.3%时达到峰值，RR为1.05（95%CI：1.02 - 1.09）。
我们的研究结果证明了热量和湿度对日本腮腺炎发病率的影响，并强调需要采取预防措施来减轻气候变异性对腮腺炎传播的影响。
