Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Eastern Theater Command, Nanjing, 210002, China.
Nanjing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, 210002, China.
Sci Rep. 2022 Apr 19;12(1):6440. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-10138-7.
Many studies have shown that the relationship between ambient temperature, relative humidity and mumps has been highlighted. However, these studies showed inconsistent results. Therefore, the goal of our study is to conduct a meta-analysis to clarify this relationship and to quantify the size of these effects as well as the potential factors. Systematic literature researches on PubMed, Embase.com, Web of Science Core Collection, Cochrane library, Chinese BioMedical Literature Database (CBM) and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) were performed up to February 7, 2022 for articles analyzing the relationships between ambient temperature, relative humidity and incidence of mumps. Eligibility assessment and data extraction were conducted independently by two researchers, and meta-analysis was performed to synthesize these data. We also assessed sources of heterogeneity by study region, regional climate, study population. Finally, a total of 14 studies were screened out from 1154 records and identified to estimate the relationship between ambient temperature, relative humidity and incidence of mumps. It was found that per 1 °C increase and decrease in the ambient temperature were significantly associated with increased incidence of mumps with RR of 1.0191 (95% CI: 1.0129-1.0252, I = 92.0%, Egger's test P = 0.001, N = 13) for per 1 °C increase and 1.0244 (95% CI: 1.0130-1.0359, I = 86.6%, Egger's test P = 0.077, N = 9) for per 1 °C decrease. As to relative humidity, only high effect of relative humidity was slightly significant (for per 1 unit increase with RR of 1.0088 (95% CI: 1.0027-1.0150), I = 72.6%, Egger's test P = 0.159, N = 9). Subgroup analysis showed that regional climate with temperate areas may have a higher risk of incidence of mumps than areas with subtropical climate in cold effect of ambient temperature and low effect of relative humidity. In addition, meta-regression analysis showed that regional climate may affect the association between incidence of mumps and cold effect of ambient temperature. Our results suggest ambient temperature could affect the incidence of mumps significantly, of which both hot and cold effect of ambient temperature may increase the incidence of mumps. Further studies are still needed to clarify the relationship between the incidence of mumps and ambient temperature outside of east Asia, and many other meteorological factors. These results of ambient temperature are important for establishing preventive measures on mumps, especially in temperate areas. The policy-makers should pay more attention to ambient temperature changes and take protective measures in advance.
许多研究表明，环境温度、相对湿度和流行性腮腺炎之间的关系已经得到了强调。然而，这些研究结果并不一致。因此，我们的研究目的是进行荟萃分析，以阐明这种关系，并量化这些影响的大小以及潜在的因素。系统地检索了 PubMed、Embase.com、Web of Science 核心合集、Cochrane 图书馆、中国生物医学文献数据库（CBM）和中国国家知识基础设施（CNKI），以获取分析环境温度、相对湿度与流行性腮腺炎发病率之间关系的文章，检索截至 2022 年 2 月 7 日。由两名研究人员独立进行合格性评估和数据提取，并对这些数据进行荟萃分析。我们还通过研究区域、区域气候、研究人群评估了异质性的来源。最后，从 1154 条记录中筛选出 14 项研究来估计环境温度、相对湿度与流行性腮腺炎发病率之间的关系。结果发现，环境温度每升高 1°C，流行性腮腺炎发病率显著升高，RR 为 1.0191（95%CI：1.0129-1.0252，I=92.0%，Egger 检验 P=0.001，N=13）；每降低 1°C，RR 为 1.0244（95%CI：1.0130-1.0359，I=86.6%，Egger 检验 P=0.077，N=9）。至于相对湿度，只有高相对湿度的影响略有显著（每增加 1 个单位，RR 为 1.0088（95%CI：1.0027-1.0150），I=72.6%，Egger 检验 P=0.159，N=9）。亚组分析表明，与亚热带气候地区相比，温带地区的环境温度冷效应和相对湿度低效应可能使流行性腮腺炎的发病率更高。此外，Meta 回归分析表明，区域气候可能会影响流行性腮腺炎发病率与环境温度冷效应之间的关联。我们的结果表明，环境温度可能会显著影响流行性腮腺炎的发病率，其中环境温度的冷热效应都可能增加流行性腮腺炎的发病率。还需要进一步的研究来阐明流行性腮腺炎发病率与东亚以外地区环境温度之间的关系，以及许多其他气象因素。这些环境温度的结果对于制定流行性腮腺炎的预防措施非常重要，特别是在温带地区。决策者应更加关注环境温度变化，并提前采取保护措施。
