Qiu Haihong, Han Hairong, Cheng Xiaoqin, Kang Fengfeng
School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, China; Qilaotu Mountain National Observation and Research Station of Chinese Forest Ecosystem, Chifeng, 024400, China.
School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, China; Qilaotu Mountain National Observation and Research Station of Chinese Forest Ecosystem, Chifeng, 024400, China.
J Environ Manage. 2025 Feb;375:124239. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124239. Epub 2025 Jan 29.
Climate change has profound implications for the distribution of suitable habitats for woody species. In this study, we assessed the optimal distribution thresholds for twelve woody species on the Loess Plateau using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model, incorporating sample points of tree species alongside relevant environmental variables. We analyzed the sustainability of potentially suitable zones and proposed a framework for selecting a regulatory model to establish the most suitable creation zones in response to future climate change. The results indicated that: (1) The distributions potentially suitable for Platycladus orientalis and Pinus tabuliformis were predominantly influenced by mean annual temperatures, whereas Pinus armandii and Quercus aliena var. acutiserrata exhibited optimal conditions at temperatures around -4 °C. Both Hippophae rhamnoides and Larix gmelinii var. principis-rupprechtii had suitable threshold precipitation levels exceeding 200 mm, with optimal thresholds surpassing 250 mm. (2) Most high-suitability zones for woody species across various future climate scenarios were primarily located in southern regions, including examples such as Betula platyphylla Sukaczev, Platycladus orientalis, Pinus sylvestris var. mongholica. Some of these high-suitability areas displayed insular and linear distributions, notably Larix gmelinii var. principis-rupprechtii, Quercus aliena var. acutiserrata, Salix cheilophila. (3) There was no southward shift in the northern boundary of the sustainability zones for any woody species across the different scenarios. Betula platyphylla and Salix babylonica exhibited the broadest distribution of sustainability zones. (4) The most suitable areas for the establishment of woody species were primarily found in the western, southern, and eastern regions, whereas the northern and central areas were less favorable for tree growth. Among the scenarios analyzed, SSP585 presents the most extensive distribution area. This study is expected to improve the distribution structure of woody species and the implementation of management policies.
气候变化对木本物种适宜栖息地的分布具有深远影响。在本研究中，我们使用最大熵（MaxEnt）模型评估了黄土高原上12种木本物种的最佳分布阈值，将树种样本点与相关环境变量相结合。我们分析了潜在适宜区域的可持续性，并提出了一个选择调控模型的框架，以建立应对未来气候变化的最合适创建区域。结果表明：（1）侧柏和油松的潜在适宜分布主要受年平均温度影响，而华山松和锐齿槲栎在约-4℃的温度下表现出最佳条件。沙棘和华北落叶松的适宜阈值降水量均超过200毫米，最佳阈值超过250毫米。（2）在各种未来气候情景下，大多数木本物种的高适宜区主要位于南部地区，如白桦、侧柏、樟子松等。其中一些高适宜区呈现出岛屿状和线性分布，特别是华北落叶松、锐齿槲栎、祁连圆柏。（3）在不同情景下，任何木本物种可持续性区域的北界均未向南移动。白桦和垂柳的可持续性区域分布最广。（4）木本物种的最合适种植区域主要位于西部、南部和东部地区，而北部和中部地区对树木生长不利。在所分析的情景中，SSP585呈现出最广泛的分布区域。本研究有望改善木本物种的分布结构和管理政策的实施。
