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使用biomod2模型模拟当前和未来气候情景下在中国的潜在分布。

Modeling the potential distribution of in China under current and future climate scenarios using the biomod2 model.

作者信息

Gan Tingjiang, He Zhipeng, Xu Danping, Chen Juan, Zhang Honghua, Wei Xinju, Zhuo Zhihang

机构信息

Engineering Research Center of Chuanxibei Rural Human Settlement (RHS) Construction, Mianyang Teachers' College, Mianyang, China.

College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong, China.

出版信息

Front Plant Sci. 2025 Apr 4;16:1533251. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2025.1533251. eCollection 2025.

DOI:10.3389/fpls.2025.1533251
PMID:40256597
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12006153/
Abstract

INTRODUCTION

Hippophae rhamnoides, a temperate species with a transcontinental distribution spanning Eurasia, demonstrates preferential establishment in water-limited ecosystems (arid/semi-arid zones), particularly occupying high-elevation niches with skeletal soils and high solar flux. This ecologically significant plant, prized for dual ecological provisioning and economic services, shows biogeographic concentration in China's northern desertification belts, northwestern Loess Plateau, and southwestern montane corridors. Studying the possible areas where H. rhamnoides may be found can offer a scientific foundation for the protection and sustainable management of its resources.

METHODS

This study utilized the biomod2 software to assess an integrated model based on 312 distribution points and 23 environmental factors. Furthermore, a modeling analysis was conducted to examine how the geographical distribution of H. rhamnoides changes over time under the SSP245 scenario.

RESULTS

The findings show that the distribution of H. rhamnoides is primarily affected by three factors: annual mean temperature, temperature seasonality and mean temperature of the coldest quarter. Currently, H. rhamnoides is predominantly distributed in the provinces of Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu, Hebei, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Tibet, Sichuan, Qinghai, and Ningxia. The suitable habitat covers an area of 212.89×10⁴ km², which represents 22.15% of China's total land area. Within this region, high, medium, and low suitability areas make up 23.15%, 22.66%, and 54.20% of the suitable habitat, respectively.

DISCUSSION

In the future, the centroid of the suitable habitat for H. rhamnoides is expected to gradually shift northwest, with a trend of increasing suitability in the west and decreasing suitability in the east. This study aims to provide an in-depth exploration of the distribution of H. rhamnoides and the influence of environmental factors on it from a geographical perspective. These results are important for improving the conservation, management, cultivation, and propagation of H. rhamnoides, while also offering a scientific foundation for the research of other valuable plant species.

摘要

引言

沙棘是一种分布于欧亚大陆的温带物种,在水资源有限的生态系统(干旱/半干旱地区)中表现出优先定殖的特性,尤其占据着土壤贫瘠且太阳辐射高的高海拔生态位。这种具有重要生态意义的植物,因其兼具生态供给和经济服务双重价值而备受珍视,在中国北方荒漠化地带、西北黄土高原和西南山地走廊呈现生物地理集中分布。研究沙棘可能出现的区域可为其资源的保护和可持续管理提供科学依据。

方法

本研究利用biomod2软件,基于312个分布点和23个环境因子评估综合模型。此外,进行了建模分析,以研究在SSP245情景下沙棘的地理分布如何随时间变化。

结果

研究结果表明,沙棘分布主要受三个因素影响:年平均温度、温度季节性和最冷月平均温度。目前,沙棘主要分布在山西、陕西、甘肃、河北、云南、新疆、西藏、四川、青海和宁夏等省份。适宜生境面积为212.89×10⁴平方千米,占中国陆地总面积的22.15%。在该区域内,高、中、低适宜性区域分别占适宜生境的23.15%、22.66%和54.20%。

讨论

未来,沙棘适宜生境的重心预计将逐渐向西北转移,呈现西部适宜性增加而东部适宜性降低的趋势。本研究旨在从地理学角度深入探究沙棘的分布及其环境因子的影响。这些结果对于改进沙棘的保护、管理、栽培和繁殖具有重要意义,同时也为其他有价值植物物种的研究提供了科学依据。

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