Hofman A, Valkenburg H A, Maas J, Groustra F N
Int J Epidemiol. 1985 Mar;14(1):91-6. doi: 10.1093/ije/14.1.91.
To find out whether there is a relationship between the level of blood pressure in childhood and later on in life, and whether future hypertensives can be identified early in life, we selected a random sample of 596 Dutch children. At the first examination they were 5-19 years of age. In 386 of them (65%) at least five consecutive annual blood pressure measurements were made between 1975 and 1982. The stability of a child's position in the blood pressure distribution ('tracking') was studied by linear regression of follow-up blood pressure on initial blood pressure. 'Tracking' coefficients were 0.4 to 0.6 mmHg/mmHg for systolic pressure, and 0.2 to 0.5 mmHg/mmHg for diastolic pressure after four years of follow-up. Twenty-seven per cent of the boys and 44% of the girls who were in the upper 10% of the systolic blood pressure distribution at the first examination were still there after four years. For diastolic pressure these figures were 25% and 22%, respectively. These observations indicate that there is a moderate degree of blood pressure 'tracking' in childhood. They further imply that it is impossible to detect future hypertensives early in life by measurement of blood pressure only.
为了探究儿童时期的血压水平与日后生活中的血压水平之间是否存在关联，以及能否在生命早期识别出未来的高血压患者，我们随机抽取了596名荷兰儿童作为样本。第一次检查时，他们的年龄在5至19岁之间。其中386名儿童（65%）在1975年至1982年期间至少连续进行了五次年度血压测量。通过对随访血压与初始血压进行线性回归，研究了儿童在血压分布中的位置稳定性（“轨迹”）。随访四年后，收缩压的“轨迹”系数为0.4至0.6 mmHg/mmHg，舒张压的“轨迹”系数为0.2至0.5 mmHg/mmHg。第一次检查时收缩压分布处于前10%的男孩中，四年后仍有27%处于该水平；女孩的这一比例为44%。舒张压方面，这些数字分别为25%和22%。这些观察结果表明，儿童时期存在一定程度的血压“轨迹”现象。它们还进一步表明，仅通过测量血压无法在生命早期检测出未来的高血压患者。
