Merchant Emily Klancher, Grace Kathryn
UC Davis, Davis, California, USA.
University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA.
Vienna Yearb Popul Res. 2024;2024(VYPR 2024):25-35. doi: 10.1553/p-hzdz-jega. Epub 2024 Sep 9.
Climate change is among the most urgent challenges of our time. While often considered a problem for the natural and physical sciences, the humanities and social sciences have made equally important interventions into research on the reciprocal relationship between humans and our climate. Because demography occupies the intersection of the natural and social sciences, and because it deals specifically with rates of change in social and natural processes, we believe it can make valuable contributions to the pressing imperatives of understanding and addressing climate change and mitigating the harms it is already visiting on the world's most vulnerable people. We also believe that climate change may afford demographers an opportunity to expand our capacity to think about time and space at finer scales, and to examine the relationships among the core demographic processes - mortality, fertility and migration - which have typically been considered in isolation from one another. Yet responsibly leveraging climate change to advance demography, and leveraging demography to advance climate science and policy, require a cognizance of history that will assist demographers and those who use our analyses in avoiding the replication of past harms and, we hope, the invention of new ones. Understanding the history of demography and of population-environment thought more broadly can help us challenge assumptions that have not served science or policy well in the past - such as the assumption that larger or faster-growing populations necessarily put more pressure on the environment, independent of structural conditions - and consider alternative theoretical framings that might lead to better scientific models and policy solutions.
气候变化是我们这个时代最紧迫的挑战之一。虽然气候变化通常被视为自然科学和物理科学领域的问题,但人文科学和社会科学在研究人类与气候的相互关系方面也做出了同样重要的贡献。由于人口统计学处于自然科学和社会科学的交叉点,并且专门研究社会和自然过程中的变化率,我们认为它可以为理解和应对气候变化以及减轻气候变化对世界上最脆弱人群已经造成的危害这一紧迫任务做出宝贵贡献。我们还认为,气候变化可能为人口统计学家提供一个机会,使我们有能力在更精细的尺度上思考时间和空间,并审视核心人口过程——死亡率、生育率和迁移率——之间的关系,而这些过程通常被孤立地看待。然而,要负责任地利用气候变化来推动人口统计学发展,并利用人口统计学来推动气候科学和政策发展,就需要认识历史,这将有助于人口统计学家以及那些使用我们分析结果的人避免重蹈过去的覆辙,并希望避免造成新的危害。更广泛地了解人口统计学和人口与环境思想的历史,有助于我们挑战过去对科学或政策没有起到良好作用的假设——比如认为人口规模越大或增长越快必然会对环境造成更大压力,而与结构条件无关的假设——并考虑可能会带来更好的科学模型和政策解决方案的替代理论框架。