Soliman Mustafa M, El-Hawagry Magdi S A, Samy Abdallah M
Entomology Department, Faculty of Science, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt.
Department of Entomology, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt.
Med Vet Entomol. 2025 Jan 30. doi: 10.1111/mve.12794.
Aedes aegypti, the primary vector of several medically significant arboviruses-including dengue fever, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika-was successfully eradicated from Egypt in 1963. However, since 2011, there have been increasing reports of its re-emergence, alongside dengue outbreaks in southern Egyptian governorates, raising significant public health concerns. This study aimed to model the current and future distribution of Ae. aegypti in Egypt. Local occurrence data were integrated with bioclimatic, anthropogenic and biological environmental variables to identify key factors influencing the distribution of Ae. aegypti. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelling demonstrated strong predictive performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] mean = 0.975; true skill statistic [TSS] mean = 0.789). The key determinants of habitat suitability were identified as human population density, annual precipitation and the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI). Current predictions indicate that suitable habitats for Ae. aegypti are concentrated in the Nile Valley, Nile Delta, Fayoum Basin, Red Sea coast and South Sinai. Projections under future climate change scenarios suggest an expansion of suitable habitats, particularly in the Nile Delta region. By 2050, the model predicts a 61%-68% increase in suitable habitat area, with a further 64%-69% increase by 2070, depending on the future climate scenarios. These findings are crucial for informing vector control and disease prevention strategies, particularly considering Egypt's status as one of the world's leading tourist destinations.
埃及伊蚊是包括登革热、黄热病、基孔肯雅热和寨卡病毒在内的几种具有重要医学意义的虫媒病毒的主要传播媒介，于1963年在埃及被成功根除。然而，自2011年以来，随着埃及南部省份登革热疫情的爆发，有关其重新出现的报告不断增加，引发了重大的公共卫生担忧。本研究旨在模拟埃及伊蚊目前和未来的分布情况。将当地出现的数据与生物气候、人为和生物环境变量相结合，以确定影响埃及伊蚊分布的关键因素。最大熵（MaxEnt）建模显示出很强的预测性能（受试者工作特征曲线下面积[AUC]平均值 = 0.975；真实技能统计量[TSS]平均值 = 0.789）。确定栖息地适宜性的关键决定因素为人口密度、年降水量和归一化植被指数（NDVI）。目前的预测表明，埃及伊蚊的适宜栖息地集中在尼罗河谷、尼罗河三角洲、法尤姆盆地、红海沿岸和南西奈半岛。未来气候变化情景下的预测表明适宜栖息地将扩大，特别是在尼罗河三角洲地区。到2050年，该模型预测适宜栖息地面积将增加61%-68%，到2070年将进一步增加64%-69%，具体取决于未来的气候情景。这些发现对于指导病媒控制和疾病预防策略至关重要，特别是考虑到埃及作为世界主要旅游目的地之一的地位。
