Rising Water Levels and Vegetation Shifts Drive Substantial Reductions in Methane Emissions and Carbon Dioxide Uptake in a Great Lakes Coastal Freshwater Wetland.

Coastal freshwater wetlands are critical ecosystems for both local and global carbon cycles, sequestering substantial carbon while also emitting methane (CH) due to anoxic conditions. Estuarine freshwater wetlands face unique challenges from fluctuating water levels, which influence water quality, vegetation, and carbon cycling. However, the response of CH fluxes and their drivers to altered hydrology and vegetation remains unclear, hindering mechanistic modeling. To address these knowledge gaps, we studied an estuarine freshwater wetland in the Great Lakes region, where rising water levels led to a vegetation shift from emergent Typha dominance in 2015-2016 to floating-leaved species in 2020-2022. Using eddy covariance flux measurements during the peak growing season (June-September) of both periods, we observed a 60% decrease in CH emissions, from 81 ± 4 g C m in 2015-2016 to 31 ± 3 g C m in 2020-2022. This decline was driven by two main factors: (1) higher water levels, which suppressed ebullitive fluxes via increased hydrostatic pressure and extended CH residence time, enhancing oxidation potential in the water column; and (2) reduced CH conductance through plants. Net carbon dioxide (CO) uptake decreased by 90%, from -267 ± 26 g C m in 2015-2016 to -27 ± 49 g C m in 2020-2022. Additionally, diel CH flux patterns shifted, with a distinct morning peak observed in 2015-2016 but absent in 2020-2022, suggesting changes in plant-mediated transport and a potential decoupling from photosynthesis. The dominant factors influencing CH fluxes shifted from water temperature and gross primary productivity in 2015-2016 to atmospheric pressure in 2020-2022, suggesting an increased role of ebullition as a primary transport pathway. Our results demonstrate that changes in water levels and vegetation can substantially alter CH and CO fluxes in coastal freshwater wetlands, underscoring the critical role of hydrological shifts in driving carbon dynamics in these ecosystems.