Ioannidis John P A, Collins Thomas A, Bendavid Eran, Baas Jeroen
Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA; Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA; Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA.
Elsevier, New York, NY, USA.
J Clin Epidemiol. 2025 Apr;180:111705. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2025.111705. Epub 2025 Jan 30.
We aimed to examine the growth trajectory and impact of COVID-19-related papers in the scientific literature and how the scientific workforce engaged in this work.
We used Scopus data to August 1, 2024, and a search string for COVID-19-related publications. Authors of COVID-19 work were mapped against databases of top-cited authors.
Scopus indexed 718,660 COVID-19-related publications. As the proportion of all indexed scientific publications, COVID-19-related publications peaked in September 2021 (4.7%) remained at 4.3%-4.6% for another year and then gradually declined but was still 1.9% in July 2024. COVID-19-related publications included 1,978,612 unique authors: 1,127,215 authors had ≥5 full papers in their career and 53,418 authors were in the top 2% of their scientific subfield. Authors with >10%, >30%, and >50% of their total career citations attributed to COVID-19-related publications were 376,942, 201,702, and 125,523, respectively. As of August 1, 2024, 65 of the top 100 most cited papers published in 2020 were COVID-19-related, declining to 24/100, 19/100, 7/100, and 5/100 for the most cited papers published in 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively. Across 174 scientific subfields, 132 had ≥10% of their active influential (top 2% by composite citation indicator) authors publish something on COVID-19 during 2020-2024. Among the 300 authors with highest composite citation indicator specifically for their COVID-19-related publications, 41 were editors or journalists or columnists.
COVID-19 massively engaged the scientific workforce in unprecedented ways. As the pandemic ended, there has been a sharp decline in the overall volume and high impact of newly published COVID-19-related publications.
We evaluated Scopus, a bibliometric database, for the increase and waning of the COVID-19 scientific literature. Until August 1, 2024, we identified 718,660 COVID-19-related publications indexed in Scopus that had involved 1,978,612 unique authors. The rise and subsequent decline pattern of COVID-19 publications was similar to other previous epidemics like Zika, Ebola, and H1N1, but at a far larger, unprecedented scale. 125,523 authors had >50% of their total career citations attributed to COVID-19 papers. 132/174 scientific subfields had at least one of every 10 of their top-cited authors publish something on COVID-19 during 2020-2024. Many influential authors were editors or journalists or columnists. Overall, COVID-19 massively engaged a huge number of authors and created a vast literature. As the interest has now sharply declined, one needs to examine what this immense COVID-19 scientific workforce will do in the future.
我们旨在研究科学文献中与新冠病毒相关论文的增长轨迹及其影响，以及从事这项工作的科研人员情况。
我们使用了截至2024年8月1日的Scopus数据，并使用了一个搜索字符串来查找与新冠病毒相关的出版物。将新冠病毒相关研究的作者与高被引作者数据库进行了比对。
Scopus索引了718,660篇与新冠病毒相关的出版物。作为所有索引科学出版物的比例，与新冠病毒相关的出版物在2021年9月达到峰值（4.7%），在接下来的一年中保持在4.3%-4.6%，然后逐渐下降，但在2024年7月仍为1.9%。与新冠病毒相关的出版物有1,978,612名不同作者：1,127,215名作者在其职业生涯中有≥5篇完整论文，53,418名作者在其科学子领域中排名前2%。其职业生涯总被引次数中>10%、>30%和>50%归因于新冠病毒相关出版物的作者分别为376,942名、201,702名和125,523名。截至2024年8月1日，2020年发表的被引次数最多的100篇论文中有65篇与新冠病毒相关，2021年、2022年、2023年和2024年发表的被引次数最多的论文中这一比例分别降至24/100、19/100、7/100和5/100。在174个科学子领域中，132个领域有≥10%的活跃有影响力（综合引用指标排名前2%）的作者在2020-2024年期间发表了与新冠病毒相关的内容。在专门针对其新冠病毒相关出版物的综合引用指标最高的300名作者中，有41名是编辑、记者或专栏作家。
新冠病毒以前所未有的方式极大地调动了科研人员。随着疫情结束，新发表的与新冠病毒相关出版物的总量和影响力大幅下降。
我们评估了文献计量数据库Scopus中新冠病毒科学文献的增长和消退情况。截至2024年8月1日，我们在Scopus中确定了718,660篇与新冠病毒相关的出版物，涉及1,978,612名不同作者。新冠病毒出版物的上升和随后的下降模式与之前的其他疫情如寨卡病毒、埃博拉病毒和H1N1相似，但规模要大得多，是前所未有的。125,523名作者的职业生涯总被引次数中有>50%归因于新冠病毒相关论文。132/174个科学子领域中，每10名高被引作者中至少有一名在2020-2024年期间发表了与新冠病毒相关的内容。许多有影响力的作者是编辑、记者或专栏作家。总体而言，新冠病毒极大地调动了大量作者，产生了大量文献。由于现在兴趣急剧下降，需要研究这支庞大的新冠病毒科研队伍未来将做什么。
