Impact of MRI risk assessment on the survival benefits of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in patients with stage II-III rectal cancer: A retrospective cohort study.

PURPOSE

To investigate whether MRI risk factors can be used to predict clinical outcomes and whether MRI risk assessment can be used to select stage II-III rectal cancer patients who may benefit from neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT).

METHODS AND MATERIALS

A total of 947 rectal cancer patients who underwent total mesorectal excision (TME) were retrospectively recruited. An MRI scoring system was established using the cumulative score of three risk factors (mesorectal fascia involvement, extramural venous invasion, and tumour deposits). Patients with mrT3c-T4 stage, N2 stage, or any risk factors were considered MRI high-risk cases of rectal cancer. Cox regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). Kaplan-Meier curves were generated to show the benefits of nCRT after propensity score matching (PSM).

RESULTS

OS and DFS were more favourable in the MRI low-risk group than in the MRI high-risk group, and the MRI scoring system facilitated prognostic stratification in stage II-III rectal cancer patients. NCRT significantly improved 3-year OS (89.1 % versus 78.8 %, p = 0.001) and 3-year DFS (73.4 % versus 68.0 %, p = 0.030) in the MRI high-risk group. After PSM, OS and DFS were improved in the MRI high-risk group with an MRI score of 1 (OS: HR = 0.432 [95 % CI: 0.214-0.871], p = 0.019; DFS: HR = 0.477 [95 % CI: 0.275-0.825], p = 0.008) and an MRI score of 2 (OS: HR = 0.276 [95 % CI: 0.130-0.586], p = 0.001; DFS: HR = 0.358 [95 % CI: 0.182-0.705], p = 0.003), whereas MRI low-risk patients did not obtain any survival benefit from nCRT.

CONCLUSIONS

MRI-defined high-risk patients with MRI scores of 1 or 2 may benefit from nCRT. Baseline MRI should be given more consideration in nCRT decision-making.