Yared Solomon, Dengela Dereje, Mumba Peter, Chibsa Sheleme, Zohdy Sarah, Irish Seth R, Yoshimizu Melissa, Balkew Meshesha, Akuno Albert, Alex Perkins T, Vazquez-Prokopec Gonzalo M
Jigjiga University, Department of Biology, Ethiopia.
PMI Evolve Project, Abt Global, , Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
bioRxiv. 2025 Jan 24:2025.01.23.633752. doi: 10.1101/2025.01.23.633752.
The invasion of Africa by poses a significant threat to malaria elimination. As exploits a wide array of urban artificial larval habitats, it may be less impacted by rainfall variability compared to other native species. We empirically investigated this assumption by quantifying the seasonal transition of an established population from eastern Ethiopia between rainy and dry periods. Monthly larval surveys generated evidence of significant heterogeneity between seasons in the type of habitat and their productivity. As the dry season progressed, productivity significantly concentrated in large water reservoirs (for drinking and construction) to a point in which up to 77% of all larvae originated from 23% of the sites. Such superproductive sites were primarily water cisterns used for residential or construction purposes. A two-patch metapopulation model of linked to rainfall data recreated the seasonal larval dynamics observed in the field and predicted that larval control targeted on superproducer water reservoirs, when implemented at coverages higher than 60%, may lead to elimination. Our findings highlight the role of environmental variability in regulating populations and open the window for the deployment of control strategies that exploit major mosquito population bottlenecks.
[物种名称]入侵非洲对疟疾消除构成重大威胁。由于[物种名称]利用多种城市人工幼虫栖息地，与其他本地[物种名称]相比，其受降雨变化的影响可能较小。我们通过量化埃塞俄比亚东部一个既定种群在雨季和旱季之间的季节性转变，对这一假设进行了实证研究。每月的幼虫调查表明，栖息地类型及其生产力在不同季节之间存在显著的异质性。随着旱季的推进，[物种名称]的生产力显著集中在大型水库（用于饮用和建设），以至于所有幼虫中有高达77%来自23%的地点。这些超高产地点主要是用于住宅或建设目的的蓄水池。与降雨数据相关联的[物种名称]双斑块集合种群模型再现了实地观察到的季节性幼虫动态，并预测当对超高产水库进行幼虫控制的覆盖率高于60%时，可能会导致[物种名称]的消除。我们的研究结果突出了环境变化在调节[物种名称]种群方面的作用，并为部署利用主要蚊虫种群瓶颈的控制策略打开了窗口。
