Tesfaye Solomon Hailemariam, Mamo Andualem, Berihanu Wondayehu, Elias Serawit
School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences and Medicine, Dilla University, Dilla, Ethiopia.
Gedeo Zone Health Department, Dilla, Ethiopia.
Heliyon. 2025 Jan 14;11(2):e41962. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2025.e41962. eCollection 2025 Jan 30.
The aim of this study was to assess the spatio-temporal pattern of cholera in rural settings of Ethiopia.
A spatiotemporal analysis of daily cholera cases in 59 Kebeles across 7 districts in the Gedeo zone from April 2 to November 18, 2023, obtained from the Gedeo Zone Health Department, was conducted. The global Moran's I statistic was used for spatial autocorrelation analysis, and the retrospective space-time scan statistic was used to analyze spatiotemporal clusters of cholera.
Throughout the outbreak, 792 cholera cases were reported, corresponding to an annual incidence of 169.4 per 100,000 population. The spatial distribution showed strong autocorrelation, with a global Moran's I coefficient of 0.272 (P-value <0.001). Five statistically significant clusters were identified by space-time scan statistics using a discrete Poisson model. These identified clusters overlapped in time and had longer durations with a relatively high risk of cholera in the study areas.
The identification of high-risk clusters specific to rural settings forms the basis for rapid public health emergency response and resource allocation by prioritizing the significantly high-risk clusters to control and eventually eliminate cholera. There is room to improve the public health response to cholera outbreaks in the study settings.
本研究旨在评估埃塞俄比亚农村地区霍乱的时空模式。
对2023年4月2日至11月18日期间从盖德奥地区卫生部门获取的盖德奥地区7个区59个 Kebeles 的每日霍乱病例进行了时空分析。全局莫兰指数用于空间自相关分析，回顾性时空扫描统计用于分析霍乱的时空聚集情况。
在整个疫情期间，共报告了792例霍乱病例，年发病率为每10万人169.4例。空间分布显示出很强的自相关性，全局莫兰指数为0.272（P值<0.001）。使用离散泊松模型通过时空扫描统计确定了五个具有统计学意义的聚集区。这些确定的聚集区在时间上重叠，持续时间较长，研究区域内霍乱风险相对较高。
识别农村地区特有的高风险聚集区为快速公共卫生应急响应和资源分配奠定了基础，通过优先处理高风险聚集区来控制并最终消除霍乱。在研究地区，改善对霍乱疫情的公共卫生应对措施仍有空间。
