Gizaw Daniel, Beyene Gashaw, Ashenafi Hagos, Legesse Mengistu, Kassa Tesfu
Animal Health Institute (AHI), Sebeta, Ethiopia.
Aklilu Lemma Institute of Health Research, Center for Pathobiology Research, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
BMC Vet Res. 2025 May 2;21(1):312. doi: 10.1186/s12917-025-04772-2.
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral infection that infects cloven-hoofed animals, including cattle, sheep, goats, swine, and various wildlife species. Ethiopia is found in pool four where Serotype A, Serotype O, SAT1 and SAT2 are endemic. A retrospective study was conducted to analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of FMD outbreaks in export-sourcing areas of Southeastern Ethiopia over 12 years (from January 2011 to December 2022), using reported FMD outbreak data. Geographically, the area extending from Borana to East Shoa, along the main road connecting Moyale to Adama, was identified as the primary FMD outbreak zone within the cattle export-sourcing areas of southeastern Ethiopia.
The data on Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks over the past twelve years (from January 2011 to December 2022) obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture's, Ethiopia database were retrieved and analyzed. There were a total of 58,426 cases across 247 outbreaks in 11 zones and 89 districts within the cattle export-sourcing areas of southeastern Ethiopia. On average, there were 20.3 outbreaks per year, with a median of 18 outbreaks annually, corresponding to approximately 4.6 outbreaks per month. The highest incidence occurred in January. The year with the most reported outbreaks was 2011, which had 54 outbreaks, followed by 2020 with 39 outbreaks and 2015 with 30 outbreaks In contrast, there were very few outbreaks recorded in 2014 and 2019. The case fatality rate was 1.02%, and an estimated 4,775,124 cattle were at risk of FMD infection. A time-series decomposition of the FMD outbreak data revealed seasonal trends. The trend analysis indicated that FMD outbreaks occurred in a cycle of two to five years, with peaks observed in 2011, 2012, 2015, and 2021. The incidence of FMD outbreaks varied across different zones, being lowest in the Afder and Gedeo zones and highest in the Arsi zone. An analysis using a space-time permutation probability model within the SaTScan software, with a maximum cluster size of 50%, identified five high-risk clusters and four low-risk clusters that were statistically significant (P < 0.05).
These spatial and temporal cluster analyses highlighted regions and periods with significantly higher-than-expected FMD outbreaks. The spatiotemporal and cluster analysis of FMD outbreaks provides critical insights for prioritizing control, prevention, and prophylactic measures in cattle export-sourcing areas of southeastern Ethiopia.
口蹄疫（FMD）是一种高度传染性的病毒感染病，可感染偶蹄类动物，包括牛、绵羊、山羊、猪以及各种野生动物。埃塞俄比亚位于第四组，其中A 型、O 型、SAT1 和 SAT2 血清型为地方流行型。利用报告的口蹄疫疫情数据，开展了一项回顾性研究，以分析埃塞俄比亚东南部出口源地区12年（2011年1月至2022年12月）间口蹄疫疫情的时空模式。在地理上，从博拉纳延伸至东绍阿、沿着连接莫亚莱和阿达马的主要道路的区域，被确定为埃塞俄比亚东南部牛出口源地区内的主要口蹄疫疫情区。
从埃塞俄比亚农业部数据库获取并分析了过去十二年（2011年1月至2022年12月）口蹄疫疫情数据。在埃塞俄比亚东南部牛出口源地区的11个区和89个县，共有247起疫情，总计58426例病例。平均每年有20.3起疫情，每年中位数为18起，相当于每月约4.6起。发病率最高发生在1月。报告疫情最多的年份是2011年，有54起疫情，其次是2020年有39起疫情，2015年有30起疫情。相比之下，2014年和2019年记录的疫情很少。病死率为1.02%，估计有4775124头牛有感染口蹄疫的风险。对口蹄疫疫情数据进行时间序列分解显示出季节性趋势。趋势分析表明，口蹄疫疫情以两到五年的周期发生，在2011年、2012年、2015年和2021年出现高峰。口蹄疫疫情的发病率在不同区域有所不同，在阿费德和盖德奥区最低，在阿尔西区最高。使用SaTScan软件中的时空置换概率模型进行分析，最大聚类大小为50%，确定了五个高风险聚类和四个低风险聚类，具有统计学意义（P < 0.05）。
这些时空聚类分析突出了口蹄疫疫情显著高于预期的区域和时期。口蹄疫疫情的时空和聚类分析为埃塞俄比亚东南部牛出口源地区的控制、预防和预防措施的优先排序提供了关键见解。
