Kelly Robert L, Mackie Madeline E, Pelton Spencer R, Robinson Erick
Department of Anthropology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071.
Department of Anthropology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2025 Feb 11;122(6):e2419454122. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2419454122. Epub 2025 Feb 3.
We examine spatiotemporal trends in the pre-European-contact Indigenous population of North America using radiocarbon (C) dates of the past 2000 y. At a continental scale, the Indigenous population of the past ~14,000 y peaked at ~1150 CE and then declined until a brief recovery shortly before 1500 CE, after which C probability declines precipitously. After testing, we reject the hypothesis that the 1150 CE peak and decline is a result of C sampling issues. We then examine the C record of the past 2000 y in each of 18 watersheds where we find peaks ranging from ~800 to 770 CE to after European contact, with the majority, in the interior of the continent, declining ~1080 to 1300 CE. Although all Indigenous populations declined after European contact, that of a large portion of the country (the Great Lakes, New England, the Mid-Atlantic, the Central Plains, the Northwest, and California) did not decline until after contact.
我们利用过去2000年的放射性碳（C）年代测定数据，研究了欧洲人接触北美原住民之前的时空趋势。在大陆尺度上，过去约14000年的原住民人口在公元1150年左右达到峰值，然后下降，直到公元1500年之前短暂恢复，此后C概率急剧下降。经过测试，我们拒绝了公元1150年的峰值和下降是C采样问题导致的这一假设。然后，我们研究了18个流域中过去2000年的C记录，在这些流域中，我们发现峰值出现在公元800年至770年之间到欧洲人接触之后，其中大多数位于大陆内部，在公元1080年至1300年之间下降。尽管所有原住民人口在欧洲人接触后都有所下降，但该国很大一部分地区（五大湖地区、新英格兰、大西洋中部、中部平原、西北部和加利福尼亚）的人口直到接触后才开始下降。
