Scammacca Ottone, Montagne David, Asins-Velis Sabina, Bondi Giulia, Borůvka Luboš, Buttafuoco Gabriele, Cadero Alice, Calzolari Costanza, Cousin Isabelle, Czuba Martina, Foldal Cecilie, Malli Armin, Klimkowicz-Pawlas Agnieszka, Kukk Liia, Lumini Erica, Medina-Roldán Eduardo, Michel Kerstin, Molina María José, O'Sullivan Lilian, Pindral Sylwia, Putku Elsa, Kitzler Barbara, Walter Christian
UMR Prodig, CNRS, Université Paris 1, Panthéon-Sorbonne, IRD, AgroParisTech, Aubervilliers, France; Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, AgroParisTech, UMR Ecosys, 91120 Palaiseau, France.
Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, AgroParisTech, UMR Ecosys, 91120 Palaiseau, France.
Sci Total Environ. 2025 Feb 25;966:178646. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.178646. Epub 2025 Feb 4.
Scenario analysis plays a central role in estimating how global changes affect the relationships linking ecosystem conditions and functioning to human needs. This is particularly true for agroecosystems, which are pivotal to ensure sustainable land planning, ecological management and food security strategies. Soils are key providers of multiple ecosystem services (ES) in agroecosystems but they are very sensitive to global drivers such as changes in climate, land use and cover. How agroecosystems should achieve sustainability, through optimizing soil capacity to supply ES while limiting the occurrence of threats, is a priority of EU policy agendas. Nevertheless, there is currently a lack of a comprehensive framework of scenario-based approaches to assess changes in soil ES (SES) and soil threats (ST). As a part of the project SERENA funded by the European Joint Program on Agricultural Soil Management, this study aims to: i) understand how drivers of global change are commonly studied in the scientific literature; ii) identify how some SES and ST are assessed in scenario-based approaches; iii) provide a preliminary discussion on how soil properties are represented in these approaches. Through a systematic review of 230 published articles related to seven SES and ten ST, this study highlights that not all SES and ST are considered with the same frequency and geographic distribution in scenario-based approaches. Despite a great methodological variability in the assessment and mapping of SES and ST, dominant methodological trends can be identified. SES are mapped more frequently than ST and, specific SES appear more disposed to spatially explicit assessments than others. Due to its novelty and complexity, research on this topic is limited to a small subset of ST or SES and projections of the combined impacts of climate, land use and management changes on multiple ST and SES should be a scientific priority to help policy makers.
情景分析在评估全球变化如何影响将生态系统状况和功能与人类需求联系起来的关系方面发挥着核心作用。对于农业生态系统而言尤其如此，农业生态系统对于确保可持续土地规划、生态管理和粮食安全战略至关重要。土壤是农业生态系统中多种生态系统服务（ES）的关键提供者，但它们对全球驱动因素（如气候、土地利用和覆盖变化）非常敏感。农业生态系统应如何通过优化土壤提供生态系统服务的能力，同时限制威胁的发生来实现可持续性，这是欧盟政策议程的一个优先事项。然而，目前缺乏一个基于情景的综合方法框架来评估土壤生态系统服务（SES）和土壤威胁（ST）的变化。作为由欧洲农业土壤管理联合计划资助的SERENA项目的一部分，本研究旨在：i）了解科学文献中通常如何研究全球变化的驱动因素；ii）确定在基于情景的方法中如何评估一些土壤生态系统服务和土壤威胁；iii）就这些方法中如何表示土壤特性进行初步讨论。通过对230篇与七种土壤生态系统服务和十种土壤威胁相关的已发表文章进行系统综述，本研究强调，在基于情景的方法中，并非所有土壤生态系统服务和土壤威胁都以相同的频率和地理分布被考虑。尽管在土壤生态系统服务和土壤威胁的评估和绘图方面存在很大的方法学差异，但可以确定主导的方法学趋势。土壤生态系统服务的绘图比土壤威胁更频繁，并且特定的土壤生态系统服务比其他服务更倾向于进行空间明确的评估。由于其新颖性和复杂性，关于这一主题的研究仅限于一小部分土壤威胁或土壤生态系统服务，对气候、土地利用和管理变化对多种土壤威胁和土壤生态系统服务的综合影响进行预测应该是帮助政策制定者的一个科学优先事项。
