Lomas J, Stoddart G L, Barer M L
Soc Sci Med. 1985;20(4):411-24. doi: 10.1016/0277-9536(85)90020-6.
This study involves a critical review of the current methods used to establish net future physician manpower requirements in Canada. The paper explores specific examples of physician manpower forecasting in Canada, and contrasts them with an extensive U.S. exercise completed recently. The conceptual and measurement difficulties inherent in the Canadian methodology are outlined. Particular attention is paid to the various factors that can potentially influence physician requirements but which are omitted from consideration in traditional forecasting. The paper concludes with a discussion of the definition of 'need' in the context of physician requirements.
本研究对加拿大目前用于确定未来医生人力需求净额的方法进行了批判性审视。本文探讨了加拿大医生人力预测的具体实例，并将其与美国最近完成的一项广泛研究进行了对比。概述了加拿大方法中固有的概念和测量难题。特别关注了各种可能影响医生需求但在传统预测中未被考虑的因素。本文最后讨论了在医生需求背景下“需求”的定义。
