Joseph Alex, Kumar Dhasarathi, Peter Roshni Mary, Mappillairaju Bagavandas
School of Public Health, SRM Institute of Science and Technology (Deemed to be University), Kattankulathur, Tamil Nadu, India.
Department of Community Medicine, SRM Institute of Science and Technology (Deemed to be University), Kattankulathur, Tamil Nadu, India
Inj Prev. 2025 Mar 20;31(2):144-150. doi: 10.1136/ip-2024-045344.
Unintentional injuries among older adults represent a significant public health challenge, particularly in low-resource settings. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of unintentional injuries among older adults in Tamil Nadu, identify associated risk factors and develop a prediction model for unintentional injuries.
A cross-sectional study was conducted among older adults in Tamil Nadu, India, and used probability proportional to size sampling. Data were collected via a semistructured questionnaire. The receiver-operating characteristic curve was created to show the probability of the occurrence of unintentional injuries among older adults.
Among 995 older adults, 13.9% reported having unintentional injuries. Among those injured, about 49% of all injuries were due to falls. The best cut-off point for predicted probability was found to be 0.88 for a sensitivity of 81% and a specificity of 61%, from receiver-operating characteristic curve. The regression analysis showed that fear of falling (4.5 times higher risk), being tribal (3.15 times higher risk), female gender (1.98 times higher risk) and alcohol consumption (1.95 times higher risk) significantly increased chance of unintentional injury.
The study highlighted the critical need to prioritise the prevention of unintentional injuries among older adults, particularly focusing on high-risk populations such as those from low socioeconomic and tribal communities. The use of receiver-operating characteristic curve in this study provides a robust and reliable method for predicting unintentional injuries in older adults in India, offering actionable insights for healthcare professionals and public health planners, if validated in future studies.
老年人的意外伤害是一项重大的公共卫生挑战，在资源匮乏地区尤为如此。本研究旨在估计泰米尔纳德邦老年人意外伤害的患病率，确定相关风险因素，并建立意外伤害的预测模型。
在印度泰米尔纳德邦的老年人中进行了一项横断面研究，并采用了规模比例概率抽样。通过半结构化问卷收集数据。绘制了受试者工作特征曲线，以显示老年人发生意外伤害的概率。
在995名老年人中，13.9%报告有意外伤害。在受伤者中，约49%的伤害是由于跌倒。从受试者工作特征曲线来看，预测概率的最佳临界点为0.88，灵敏度为81%，特异度为61%。回归分析表明，害怕跌倒（风险高4.5倍）、属于部落群体（风险高3.15倍）、女性（风险高1.98倍）和饮酒（风险高1.95倍）显著增加了意外伤害的几率。
该研究强调了优先预防老年人意外伤害的迫切需要，特别是关注社会经济地位低下和部落社区等高危人群。本研究中使用受试者工作特征曲线为预测印度老年人意外伤害提供了一种强大而可靠的方法，如果在未来研究中得到验证，可为医疗保健专业人员和公共卫生规划者提供可操作的见解。
