Li Zhihong, Aihemaiti Yiliyaer, Yang Qianqian, Ahemai Yiliminuer, Li Zimei, Du Qianqian, Wang Yan, Zhang Hanxiang, Cai Yingbin
School of Nursing, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, 830011, China.
The Third Clinical School of Medicine, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, 83000, China.
BMC Cancer. 2025 Feb 14;25(1):262. doi: 10.1186/s12885-025-13663-6.
OBJECTIVE: To construct a postoperative recurrence prediction model for patients with T1 colorectal cancer after endoscopic resection and surgical operation via survival machine learning algorithms. METHODS: Based on two tertiary-level affiliated hospitals, case data of 580 patients with T1 colorectal cancer treated by endoscopic resection and surgery were obtained, and patients' personal information, treatment modalities, and pathology-related information were extracted. After Boruta's algorithmic feature selection, predictors with significant contributions were identified. The patients were divided into a train set and a test set at a ratio of 7:3, and five survival machine learning models were subsequently built, namely, Randomized Survival Forest (RSF), Gradient Boosting (GB), Survival Tree (ST), CoxPH and Coxnet. Interpretability analysis of the model is based on the SHAP algorithm. RESULTS: Patients at high risk of lymph node metastasis have a poor prognosis, but different treatment modalities do not significantly affect the prognosis of patients with recurrence. The Random Survival Forest model shows better performance, with a C-index and Integrated Brier Score of 0.848 and 0.098 in the test set, respectively, and its time-dependent AUC is 0.918. The interpretability analysis of the model revealed that submucosal invasion depth < 1000 μm, tumor budding grade of BD1, lymphovascular invasion and perineural invasion are absent, well differentiated cancer cells, and tumor size < 20 mm have positive effects on the model, lts negative gain characteristics are a contributing factor to patient relapse. CONCLUSIONS: The prognostic model constructed via survival machine learning for patients with T1 colorectal cancer has good performance, and can provide accurate individualized predictions.
目的:通过生存机器学习算法构建T1期结直肠癌患者内镜切除及手术后的术后复发预测模型。 方法:基于两家三级甲等附属医院,获取580例接受内镜切除及手术治疗的T1期结直肠癌患者的病例数据,并提取患者的个人信息、治疗方式及病理相关信息。经过Boruta算法特征选择,确定具有显著贡献的预测因子。将患者按7:3的比例分为训练集和测试集,随后构建五个生存机器学习模型,即随机生存森林(RSF)、梯度提升(GB)、生存树(ST)、CoxPH和Coxnet。基于SHAP算法对模型进行可解释性分析。 结果:淋巴结转移高危患者预后较差,但不同治疗方式对复发患者的预后影响不显著。随机生存森林模型表现更佳,测试集中的C指数和综合Brier评分分别为0.848和0.098,其时间依赖性AUC为0.918。模型的可解释性分析显示,黏膜下浸润深度<1000μm、肿瘤芽生分级为BD1、无淋巴管侵犯和神经周侵犯、癌细胞高分化以及肿瘤大小<20mm对模型有正向影响,其负增益特征是患者复发的一个促成因素。 结论:通过生存机器学习为T1期结直肠癌患者构建的预后模型性能良好,能够提供准确的个体化预测。
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