Yhang Yoo-Bin, Lim Chang-Mook, Jeong Daeun
APEC Climate Center, Busan, Korea.
Sci Data. 2025 Feb 20;12(1):303. doi: 10.1038/s41597-025-04643-3.
The multi-model ensemble (MME) technique is useful for obtaining reliable climate information. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) has provided well-constructed MME data and individual model data included in the MME. This study examines the prediction skill of the APCC MME, focusing on 2-m temperature, precipitation, and sea surface temperature. For the overall evaluation of the APCC MME, the hindcast skill was assessed for the period of 1991-2010 for four sets of APCC MME representing the operational model suites from 2019 to 2022. The forecast skill was also evaluated to demonstrate actual predictability from 2019 to 2022. Hindcast validation showed a modest improvement, indicating continuous enhancement. In addition, it was demonstrated that the forecast skill was consistently maintained. These seasonal forecast data can provide valuable insights for decision-making across various sectors, helping mitigate risks and optimize resource management.
多模式集合（MME）技术对于获取可靠的气候信息很有用。亚太经合组织气候中心（APCC）提供了构建完善的MME数据以及MME中包含的单个模型数据。本研究考察了APCC MME的预测技巧，重点关注2米气温、降水量和海表温度。为了对APCC MME进行全面评估，对代表2019年至2022年业务模式集合的四组APCC MME在1991年至2010年期间的后报技巧进行了评估。还对2019年至2022年的预测技巧进行了评估，以展示实际可预测性。后报验证显示有适度改进，表明在持续增强。此外，还证明了预测技巧得到持续维持。这些季节预测数据可为各部门的决策提供有价值的见解，有助于降低风险和优化资源管理。
