Advancing sub-seasonal to seasonal multi-model ensemble precipitation prediction in east asia: Deep learning-based post-processing for improved accuracy.

The growing interest in Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) prediction data across different industries underscores its potential use in comprehending weather patterns, extreme conditions, and important sectors such as agriculture and energy management. However, concerns about its accuracy have been raised. Furthermore, enhancing the precision of rainfall predictions remains challenging in S2S forecasts. This study enhanced the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction skills for precipitation amount and occurrence over the East Asian region by employing deep learning-based post-processing techniques. We utilized a modified U-Net architecture that wraps all its convolutional layers with TimeDistributed layers as a deep learning model. For the training datasets, the precipitation prediction data of six S2S climate models and their multi-model ensemble (MME) were constructed, and the daily precipitation occurrence was obtained from the three thresholds values, 0 % of the daily precipitation for no-rain events, <33 % for light-rain, >67 % for heavy-rain. Based on the precipitation amount prediction skills of the six climate models, deep learning-based post-processing outperformed post-processing using multiple linear regression (MLR) in the lead times of weeks 2-4. The prediction accuracy of precipitation occurrence with MLR-based post-processing did not significantly improve, whereas deep learning-based post-processing enhanced the prediction accuracy in the total lead times, demonstrating superiority over MLR. We enhanced the prediction accuracy in forecasting the amount and occurrence of precipitation in individual climate models using deep learning-based post-processing.