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全球光伏产业链贸易格局的演变与脆弱性分析

Evolution and vulnerability analysis of global photovoltaic industry chain trade pattern.

作者信息

Ding Chao, Ren Xiaobei

机构信息

School of Management, Hebei GEO University, No. 136 Huai'an East Road, Yuhua District, Shijiazhuang City, 050031, Hebei, China.

Strategy and Management Base of Mineral Resources in Hebei Province, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang, 050031, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Feb 21;15(1):6275. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-90234-6.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-025-90234-6
PMID:39979409
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11842572/
Abstract

As global energy demand increases, photovoltaic power generation has become the solution to the energy conundrum. Based on global photovoltaic product trade data from 2000 to 2023, this paper examines the development of photovoltaic industry chain trade pattern and impact of PageRank centrality top 10% node failures on network vulnerability. It accomplishes this by employing hypothetical assault strategies and intricate networks. Research has shown that: ① The trade pattern of PV industry chain has undergone profound changes. The trend of multipolarization is becoming more and more obvious. China's position in each link of the industry chain is increasingly prominent. ② The vulnerability of the PV industry chain network shows a weakening trend. The vulnerability of upstream and midstream networks is more stable. The destruction resistance of the downstream network has been improved. Fluctuation of the node impact on the network structure has weakened. ③ There is a distinct gradient of susceptibility in PV industrial chain. The vulnerability of the downstream is relatively low, followed by the midstream. The vulnerability of the upstream is relatively high.

摘要

随着全球能源需求的增加，光伏发电已成为解决能源难题的方案。基于2000年至2023年的全球光伏产品贸易数据，本文研究了光伏产业链贸易格局的发展以及PageRank中心性排名前10%的节点故障对网络脆弱性的影响。这是通过采用假设攻击策略和复杂网络来实现的。研究表明：①光伏产业链的贸易格局发生了深刻变化。多极化趋势越来越明显。中国在产业链各环节的地位日益突出。②光伏产业链网络的脆弱性呈减弱趋势。上游和中游网络的脆弱性较为稳定。下游网络的抗破坏能力有所提高。节点对网络结构的影响波动减弱。③光伏产业链存在明显的易感性梯度。下游的脆弱性相对较低，其次是中游。上游的脆弱性相对较高。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ac05/11842572/77eb46a3ab3b/41598_2025_90234_Fig13_HTML.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ac05/11842572/10dc05531146/41598_2025_90234_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ac05/11842572/6f2094396df9/41598_2025_90234_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ac05/11842572/b6c40c9847de/41598_2025_90234_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ac05/11842572/45d92a327df4/41598_2025_90234_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ac05/11842572/d050360fe8a5/41598_2025_90234_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ac05/11842572/bcdfa92513de/41598_2025_90234_Fig9_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ac05/11842572/b9c2bcb8879a/41598_2025_90234_Fig10_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ac05/11842572/e827de08d188/41598_2025_90234_Fig11_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ac05/11842572/7d1225c39664/41598_2025_90234_Fig12_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ac05/11842572/77eb46a3ab3b/41598_2025_90234_Fig13_HTML.jpg

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本文引用的文献

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