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中国兰州三种颗粒物(PM)暴露指标及其对呼吸系统疾病住院率影响的比较分析。

A comparative analysis of three PM exposure metrics and their impact on respiratory disease hospitalizations in Lanzhou, China.

作者信息

Li Qian, Cao Yongqin, Li Chunlan, Xu Ke, Zhang Xusong, Zhu Anning, Yu Jingze, Liu Miaoxin, Ruan Ye

机构信息

School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, People's Republic of China.

Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou, People's Republic of China.

出版信息

Environ Geochem Health. 2025 Feb 21;47(3):83. doi: 10.1007/s10653-025-02396-x.

Abstract

Research on the associations between PM and total respiratory diseases (RD) in Lanzhou is limited. We investigated the short-term impact of PM on total RD hospitalizations in Lanzhou (2015-2019) using various exposure metrics. We collected data on hospitalizations, daily air pollutant concentrations, and meteorological factors during the study period. Daily excessive concentration hours (DECH) were calculated according to the World Health Organization's air quality guidelines. A distributional lag nonlinear model (DLNM) based on a generalized additive model (GAM) was used to comparatively analyze the association between three PM exposure metrics (DECH (DECH PM), daily mean concentration (Mean PM), and hourly peak concentration (Peak PM)) and RD hospitalizations. Subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses were also performed. We found similar effects on RD hospitalizations using DECH PM and Mean PM, but relatively weak associations observed using Peak PM. The cumulative lag effect increased daily. Subgroup analyses showed that females and children aged 0-17 years were more susceptible to PM pollution and that the association was enhanced during the cold season. Our research strengthened the evidence that exposure to ambient PM increases the risk of RD. This study revalidated the reliability of the new metrics and confirmed that DECH PM effect estimates for exposure-disease were more accurate than the Mean PM.

摘要

关于兰州细颗粒物(PM)与全呼吸道疾病(RD)之间关联的研究有限。我们使用多种暴露指标,调查了PM对兰州(2015 - 2019年)全呼吸道疾病住院情况的短期影响。我们收集了研究期间的住院数据、每日空气污染物浓度和气象因素。根据世界卫生组织的空气质量指南计算每日超标浓度小时数(DECH)。基于广义相加模型(GAM)的分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)用于比较分析三种PM暴露指标(DECH(DECH PM)、日平均浓度(Mean PM)和小时峰值浓度(Peak PM))与呼吸道疾病住院之间的关联。还进行了亚组分析和敏感性分析。我们发现使用DECH PM和Mean PM对呼吸道疾病住院有相似的影响,但使用Peak PM观察到的关联相对较弱。累积滞后效应逐日增加。亚组分析表明,女性和0 - 17岁儿童更容易受到PM污染影响,且在寒冷季节这种关联会增强。我们的研究强化了环境PM暴露会增加呼吸道疾病风险的证据。本研究重新验证了新指标的可靠性,并证实DECH PM对暴露 - 疾病的效应估计比Mean PM更准确。

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