Danial Zach, Edwards Nathan, James John, Mahoney Paula, Corrado Casey, Savage Brian
The MITRE Coporation, Tysons, VA, USA.
Health Syst (Basingstoke). 2023 Dec 21;14(1):12-30. doi: 10.1080/20476965.2023.2287506. eCollection 2025.
Airborne pathogen transmission within crowded facilities can be modelled by combining several interrelated mechanisms of spread: movement of people, airflow dynamics, and aerosol dispersion. This paper describes a composite model framework combining analytical models to demonstrate the spread of an airborne pathogen in a crowded, confined space at an immigrant processing centre on the southern US border during the border crisis of March 2021. Recommendations that could reduce current COVID-19 infection rate from 11% to 6.16% at relatively low additional cost to the government are given. These recommendations could also lower the infection rate by approximately five times from 31.14% worst case from long indoor exposures down to 6.35% when immigrant processing times surge to 10 days. This work highlights the challenges of managing COVID-19 in crowded facilities, and provides quantitative decision options with potential both to slow and prevent disease spread, while lessening the economic burden on communities.
通过结合几种相互关联的传播机制，可以对拥挤场所内空气传播病原体的传播进行建模：人员流动、气流动力学和气溶胶扩散。本文描述了一个综合模型框架，该框架结合了分析模型，以展示2021年3月边境危机期间，在美国南部边境一个移民处理中心拥挤、封闭空间内空气传播病原体的传播情况。文中给出了一些建议，这些建议可以以相对较低的额外成本将当前的新冠病毒感染率从11%降至6.16%。当移民处理时间激增到10天时，这些建议还可以将感染率从长期室内暴露最坏情况下的31.14%降低约五倍，降至6.35%。这项工作突出了在拥挤场所管理新冠病毒的挑战，并提供了定量决策选项，既有减缓疾病传播的潜力，也有预防疾病传播的潜力，同时减轻社区的经济负担。
