Fang Tingting, Hu Jie, Gu Yefu, Sung Joseph J Y, Yim Steve Hung Lam
Centre for Climate Change and Environmental Health, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore; Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.
Centre for Climate Change and Environmental Health, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore; Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.
Environ Int. 2025 Mar;197:109333. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2025.109333. Epub 2025 Feb 15.
Recent evidence has shown the increasing trend of tropospheric ozone (O) in Southeast Asia. Mitigating O pollution in Southeast Asia has become important and urgent. While the nonlinear O chemistry makes policy-making complicated, the O formation regime and O response to different emissions have rarely been assessed in Southeast Asia. Furthermore, the O-attributable health impacts in Southeast Asia under future emission scenarios have yet to be quantified. Herein, we applied the regional chemical transport model with the High-order Decoupled Direct Method (HDDM) to simulate the O sensitivity to precursor emissions in Southeast Asia, and then projected the health benefits under future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) emission scenarios, providing policy suggestions for mitigating O pollution and its health impacts. Our results show O in urban areas (i.e., Singapore, Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok, and Ho Chi Minh City) was sensitive to both nitrogen oxides (NO) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions, and synergistic NO and VOCs control is thus essential. Suburban, rural, and sea areas were under a NO-limited regime, suggesting the high effectiveness of controlling NO over these areas. Compared with the health impacts in baseline year (2019), the annual total O-attributed premature mortality under the business-as-usual emission scenario (SSP245) is projected to reduce by 22 k (47 %) by 2050 due to the future NO emission reductions in power generation, industrial process, and transportation. Most of the health benefits will happen in Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand. The sustainable emission scenario (SSP126) is projected to avoid 36 k annual O-attributed premature mortalities by 2050 due to its more stringent NO reductions in shipping, transportation, and industrial process. SSP370 and SSP585 are projected to increase the O-attributable premature mortality by up to 33 k because of the rising NO emissions.
近期证据表明，东南亚对流层臭氧（O）呈上升趋势。减轻东南亚的O污染已变得至关重要且紧迫。虽然非线性O化学使决策变得复杂，但东南亚地区O的形成机制以及O对不同排放的响应很少得到评估。此外，未来排放情景下东南亚地区O导致的健康影响尚未得到量化。在此，我们应用具有高阶解耦直接法（HDDM）的区域化学传输模型来模拟东南亚地区O对前体排放的敏感性，然后预测未来共享社会经济路径（SSP）排放情景下的健康效益，为减轻O污染及其健康影响提供政策建议。我们的结果表明，城市地区（即新加坡、雅加达、吉隆坡、曼谷和胡志明市）的O对氮氧化物（NO）和挥发性有机化合物（VOCs）排放均敏感，因此协同控制NO和VOCs至关重要。郊区、农村和海域处于NO限制状态，这表明在这些地区控制NO具有很高的有效性。与基准年（2019年）的健康影响相比，由于未来发电、工业过程和交通领域的NO排放减少，到2050年，在照常排放情景（SSP245）下，每年因O导致的过早死亡总数预计将减少22,000例（47%）。大部分健康效益将发生在印度尼西亚、菲律宾、越南和泰国。由于在航运、交通和工业过程中更严格地减少NO排放，可持续排放情景（SSP126）预计到2050年每年可避免36,000例因O导致的过早死亡。由于NO排放增加，预计SSP370和SSP585将使因O导致的过早死亡增加多达33,000例。
