Heikonen Sara, Heino Matias, Jalava Mika, Siebert Stefan, Viviroli Daniel, Kummu Matti
Aalto University, Department of Built Environment, Espoo, Finland.
University of Göttingen, Department of Crop Sciences, Göttingen, Germany.
Nat Food. 2025 Apr;6(4):331-342. doi: 10.1038/s43016-025-01135-w. Epub 2025 Mar 4.
Climate change alters the climatic suitability of croplands, likely shifting the spatial distribution and diversity of global food crop production. Analyses of future potential food crop diversity have been limited to a small number of crops. Here we project geographical shifts in the climatic niches of 30 major food crops under 1.5-4 °C global warming and assess their impact on current crop production and potential food crop diversity across global croplands. We found that in low-latitude regions, 10-31% of current production would shift outside the climatic niche even under 2 °C global warming, increasing to 20-48% under 3 °C warming. Concurrently, potential food crop diversity would decline on 52% (+2 °C) and 56% (+3 °C) of global cropland. However, potential diversity would increase in mid to high latitudes, offering opportunities for climate change adaptation. These results highlight substantial latitudinal differences in the adaptation potential and vulnerability of the global food system under global warming.
气候变化改变了农田的气候适宜性，很可能会使全球粮食作物生产的空间分布和多样性发生变化。对未来潜在粮食作物多样性的分析一直局限于少数几种作物。在此，我们预测了在全球变暖1.5至4摄氏度的情况下30种主要粮食作物气候生态位的地理变化，并评估其对全球农田当前作物产量和潜在粮食作物多样性的影响。我们发现，在低纬度地区，即使在全球变暖2摄氏度的情况下，目前10%至31%的产量也将转移到气候生态位之外，在变暖3摄氏度的情况下这一比例将增至20%至48%。与此同时，全球52%（升温2摄氏度）和56%（升温3摄氏度）的农田潜在粮食作物多样性将会下降。然而，中高纬度地区的潜在多样性将会增加，为适应气候变化提供了机遇。这些结果凸显了全球变暖情况下全球粮食系统在适应潜力和脆弱性方面存在显著的纬度差异。
