World Vegetable Center, Headquarters, Shanhua, Tainan 74151, Taiwan.
Trees Research Theme, World Agroforestry, CIFOR-ICRAF, Nairobi, 00100, Kenya.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2023 Apr 4;120(14):e2205794120. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2205794120. Epub 2023 Mar 27.
As climate changes in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Africa's "forgotten" food crops offer a wide range of options to diversify major staple production as a key measure toward achieving zero hunger and healthy diets. So far, however, these forgotten food crops have been neglected in SSA's climate-change adaptation strategies. Here, we quantified their capacity to adapt cropping systems of SSA's major staples of maize, rice, cassava, and yams to changing climates for the four subregions of West, Central, East, and Southern Africa. We used climate-niche modeling to explore their potential for crop diversification or the replacement of these major staples by 2070, and assessed the possible effects on micronutrient supply. Our results indicated that approximately 10% of the present production locations of these four major staples in SSA may experience novel climate conditions in 2070, ranging from a high of almost 18% in West Africa to a low of less than 1% in Southern Africa. From an initial candidate panel of 138 African forgotten food crops embracing leafy vegetables, other vegetables, fruits, cereals, pulses, seeds and nuts, and roots and tubers, we selected those that contributed most to covering projected future and contemporary climate conditions of the major staples' production locations. A prioritized shortlist of 58 forgotten food crops, able to complement each other in micronutrient provision, was determined, which covered over 95% of assessed production locations. The integration of these prioritized forgotten food crops in SSA's cropping systems will support the "double-win" of more climate-resilient and nutrient-sensitive food production in the region.
随着撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)气候变化,非洲被“遗忘”的粮食作物为多样化主要主食生产提供了广泛的选择,这是实现零饥饿和健康饮食的关键措施。然而,迄今为止,这些被遗忘的粮食作物在 SSA 的气候变化适应战略中被忽视。在这里,我们量化了它们适应 SSA 主要主食(玉米、水稻、木薯和山药)种植系统以应对气候变化的能力,涵盖了西非、中非、东非和南非四个次区域。我们使用气候生态位建模来探索它们在 2070 年实现作物多样化或替代这些主要主食的潜力,并评估对微量营养素供应的可能影响。我们的结果表明,SSA 这四种主要主食的当前生产地点约有 10%可能在 2070 年经历新的气候条件,从西非的近 18%到南非的不到 1%不等。从最初包括叶菜类、其他蔬菜、水果、谷物、豆类、种子和坚果以及根和块茎的 138 种非洲被遗忘粮食作物的候选面板中,我们选择了那些对覆盖主要主食生产地点未来和当前气候条件贡献最大的作物。确定了一份由 58 种被遗忘的粮食作物组成的优先短名单,它们在提供微量营养素方面可以相互补充,涵盖了评估生产地点的 95%以上。将这些被优先考虑的被遗忘粮食作物纳入 SSA 的种植系统将支持该地区更具气候弹性和营养敏感的粮食生产的“双赢”。