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多标准模型为美国海上风电选址提供了更深入的见解。

Multicriteria models provide enhanced insight for siting US offshore wind.

作者信息

Santarromana Rudolph, Abdulla Ahmed, Morgan M Granger, Mendonça Joana

机构信息

Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA.

Center for Innovation, Technology, and Policy Research (IN+), Department of Engineering and Management, Instituto Superior Técnico-Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon 1049-001, Portugal.

出版信息

PNAS Nexus. 2025 Mar 4;4(3):pgaf051. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf051. eCollection 2025 Mar.

Abstract

Offshore wind can be a key contributor to energy system decarbonization, but its deployment in certain regions has been slow, partly due to opposition from disparate interests. Failure to sufficiently address the concerns of external stakeholders could continue to hamper deployment. Here, we use a multi criteria model to assess all possible sites in a 2 km × 2 km grid of all potential locations in continental US federal waters, contrasting the perspectives of developers and other stakeholders. Our model elucidates how developers and policymakers could better approach future deployment. First, while developers prefer larger plants, we find that these facilities are more fragile-they are sensitive to location, and their impacts are more uncertain than smaller plants. Second, there is 600 GW of capacity where both developer and stakeholder interests align-developing these locations should be prioritized. Third, there are few areas on the US West Coast where developer and stakeholder preferences align, suggesting a need to reduce stakeholder-plant interactions or locate facilities in deeper waters than current technology allows.

摘要

海上风能可以成为能源系统脱碳的关键贡献者,但其在某些地区的部署一直很缓慢,部分原因是来自不同利益方的反对。未能充分解决外部利益相关者的担忧可能会继续阻碍部署。在此,我们使用多标准模型来评估美国大陆联邦水域所有潜在位置的2公里×2公里网格中的所有可能地点,对比开发商和其他利益相关者的观点。我们的模型阐明了开发商和政策制定者如何能够更好地推进未来的部署。首先,虽然开发商更喜欢大型工厂,但我们发现这些设施更脆弱——它们对选址敏感,并且其影响比小型工厂更不确定。其次,有600吉瓦的容量,开发商和利益相关者的利益一致——应优先开发这些地点。第三,美国西海岸几乎没有开发商和利益相关者偏好一致的区域,这表明需要减少利益相关者与工厂的互动,或者将设施定位在比当前技术允许的更深水域。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7999/11879181/ba15099f608f/pgaf051f1.jpg

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